WATFSummaryApril2004

• Title: Task Force Meeting Minutes
• Date: 4/13/2004
• Description: Minutes
• Basin: Statewide
• Drought Mitigation - Doc Type: WATF Meeting Summary

March. From now on he will be reporting breaking temperatures--maximum and minimum
temperatures--showing the effects of loss of water due to evaporation transpiration. Mr. Pielke
said we would need well above average precipitation to get us up to the next 12 month SPI
average. He explained that if we had average rainfall for the next 12 months, we would still be
in drought conditions across most of the state.

Treste Huse. National Weather Service. Short Term Weather Forecast
Ms. Huse reported that there would not be much precipitation until maybe Friday and that it
would be slowly wanning up through Friday. She said it would be 80 degrees in some areas in
the southwest on Friday. Ms. Huse forecasted that there would be no precipitation for us, but a
slight chance in the mountains and in the west, cooling by Sunday, but not by much. She also
said that early next week we would have dry seasonable temperatures and dry into next week.

For the 6-10 day forecast we would have equal chances of above or below temperatures and
above nonnal precipitation.

For the 18 day forecast we would have similar chances but below average precipitation.

Klaus Wolter. NOAA Climate Diagnostic Center. Long Term Weather Outlook

Mr. Wolter said that last week's weather was similar to the weather pattern of 1999. He also
reported that the 8-14 day forecast looks good, but there is still much uncertainty. Mr. Wolter
said the Operation Center sometimes makes forecasts based on the history of soil moisture (as
they do streamflow forecasts). He said this time of the year has some skill for that, because soil
moisture is recycled better. Mr. Wolter mentioned that there is no El Nino possible.

The following executive summary from Klaus Wolter has been added to the minutes:

.~n'1 , ~ ("'i .... .\ ~ ~
t-~ .X {-~,...~ 111"] \l f~ .~ II rn rn ~:~r'\l { ,::-~ fl f'l ~
.~.--~-~. ~_,,\..,"\.Ai-\....., ~ ",,,..' ~._.' ...A._.__. !<.._.--. s......~." "J \,,"'- ~1~"-"- .....,

'i f~
_t..:-:; ,~

,"1 {){) /1 \
..:.:.:.~"t}t.,~'''+ }
...

1. The most recent EI Nino event - declared over last June - tried to
make a comeback last fall, but has been 'clinically dead' for some
time now. Near-neutral ENSO conditions remain the safest bet for
the next few months, with dwindling hope remaining for a
resurgent EI Nino later this year.

2. After a disappointing March that produced early snowmelt in
elevations below about 9,000 ft., and reducing the snowpack
during a time of year when it should be growing the fastest, early
April tried to make up for it. This appears to have benefitted the
Front Range, the Sangre de Cristos, and the San Juans the most,
while the northwestern and northeastern corners of Colorado
received the least. Despite some resemblance of March 2004 with
April 2002, this does not look like a repeat of that extreme spring.