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<br />r <br />I <br /> <br />- - <br /> <br />Executive Summary (24 September 2003) <br /> <br />I. As of today, the most recent EI Nino event - declared over in June - is still trying to make a <br />comeback. Near-neutral conditions are the safest bet for the next few months, but I would not be <br />surprised to see EI Nino return by next spring. Therefore, the scenario of back-to-back EI Nino <br />springs remains alive, and with it the hope for another wet spring. <br /> <br />2. July 2003 endcd up being the hottest month on record for much of Colorado, except in the Denver- <br />Boulder area. If it had not been for this year's wet spring, forest fires would have been a bigger <br />factor in Colorado this summer. After a slow start, the monsoon has been fairly uneven. New <br />Mexico in partieular has been skipped over by many storms, contrary to expectations. <br />Nevertheless, August temperatures have been closer to normal than in July, and weak steering <br />winds have allowed for slow moving thunderstorms to drop healthy amounts of rain in their path. <br />September has been cooler than normal, and precipitation events have favored the San Juans, <br />where moisture was most needcd. <br /> <br />3. The most recent experimental forecasts for Oetober through December 2003 advertise below- <br />normal precipitation for most of the southwestern U.S., in particular New Mexico, while northern <br />Colorado shows no strong tilt of the odds. A first outlook into early next year adds to the drought <br />concerns south and west of Colorado, while northeast Colorado even features a modest tilt of the <br />odds towards a wet winter. <br /> <br />4. Bottomline: The hot summer of 2003 has erased some of the gains made through a wet spring in <br />much of Colorado. Nevertheless, our state is in much better shape than twelve months ago. For <br />the upcoming Fall 2003, my fQrecast is on the dry side for most regions south of northern <br />Colorado, but "on the fence" f0r'Us. Beyond that, there is a good chance for at least ncar-normal <br />pmcipitatiOll ove, rt;tosn.o:f Colorado, while N:ew ~Xliop and Arizona appear to be swck in a dry <br />reo 'ime thrau b the u com in , W'inter. <br />