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<br />Bob Steger. Denver Water Board <br />Mr. Steger explained the current storage conditions for Denver Water. He expressed <br />concern that ash and silt from the recent wildfires would be entering streams once rain <br />begins to fall. He also noted that Dillion Reservoir is currently very low. <br /> <br />Bob Glancy. National Weather Service. Short Term Weather Forecast <br />Mr.Glancy reported that the Colorado mountains had recently received between Y. inch to <br />Y, inch of rain. He noted that the predicted monsoons had not been coming in steadily <br />but that an approaching stormtrack would remain north of Colorado. He remarked that <br />by midweek (next week) the monsoon pattern would return to most of Colorado. <br /> <br />Klaus Wolter. NOAA Climate Diagnostic Center. Long Term Weather Outlook <br />1. El Nino's growth has stalled during the last month, leaving conditions essentially <br />unchanged. Despite some model forecasts that reduce its strength over the next few <br />months, I believe more growth is probable, and an overall amplitude in the moderate <br />to strong range is possible by year's end. In fact, my latest statistical forecast for this <br />El Nino shows a peak value among the top 10 events by JanuaryIFebruary 2003. <br /> <br />2. Historically, even modest El Nino conditions have been associated with wetter than <br />average conditions for August in Colorado and several adjacent states. I continue to <br />think that this El Nino has a good chance of exerting its influence through the <br />monsoon season. Climate impacts through the upcoming winter season are probable <br />in the interior West, and will be summArized in subsequent updates. At this point it is <br />noteworthy that the strength of an El Nino event is often related to the sized of its <br />impacts in this region. <br /> <br />3. The latest experimental forecast for July through September rainfall continues a better <br />than 50/50 chance for wetness in eastern Colorado, compared to even odds for <br />western Colorado. Further south, New Mexico stands the best chance of receiving <br />above normal rains this summer, while the Arizona monsoon refuses to be pinned <br />down this year. These forecasts are based on a variety of influences on our climate, <br />with El Nino being just one of several indicators that look fayorable. The one factor <br />that continues to handicap this forecast is the historic tendency of drought conditions <br />to perpetuate themselves. For instance, during this spring season, my forecast for <br />relatively wet conditions in the Northern Front Range vs. relatively dry conditions <br />from the Four Corners southwestward verified on the dry side for everybody. <br /> <br />4. A brief monsoonal interlude in early July, and sustained higher humidity levels have <br />reduced fire danger, and helped with the containment of several large fires in <br />Colorado. However, drier pockets remain despite repeated monsoon surges into our <br />state. In addition, near-record heat has dramatically increased demand for water at a <br />time of low inflow into reservoirs. <br /> <br />5. Bottomline: I continue to believe that the odds for an above-average monsoon season <br />are better than 50/50 for eastern Colorado and, especially for New Mexico, while <br />Arizona and Western Colorado face a more uncertain monsoon season. Compared to <br />