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LongTermOutlookJan2005
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LongTermOutlookJan2005
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Last modified
9/27/2011 3:26:43 PM
Creation date
9/30/2006 10:20:37 AM
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Template:
Drought Mitigation
Title
Seasonal Outlook for the first half of 2005
Date
1/18/2005
Description
Presentation
Basin
Statewide
Drought Mitigation - Doc Type
Presentation
Document Relationships
ClimateUpdateJan2005
(Message)
Path:
\Drought Mitigation\Backfile
SWSIReportJan2005
(Message)
Path:
\Drought Mitigation\Backfile
WATFAgendaJan2005
(Message)
Path:
\Drought Mitigation\Backfile
WATFSummaryJan2005
(Message)
Path:
\Drought Mitigation\Backfile
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<br />WY 2000-2004 skill assessment <br /> <br />Heidke skill scores (HSS) within the 2000-04 (WY) verification period. <br />This is based on ALL forecasts, forecasts with ;;8% tercile shifts, and <br />those with ;8% tercile shifts. Near-neutral forecasts had to have both <br />extreme tercile probabilities suppressed to be counted as such. <br /> <br />Season HSS #0.15/(0.31) % predictand <br />ALL/3/7 3% /7% coverage (3%/7%) <br /> <br />JFM (9) -.04/-.05/-.0 I 2 (2) / 2 (2) 96(Yo /49% <br />(NC mtns. CO & UT!) <br />AMJ (9) 0.12/0.16/0.10 6 (1) /4(2) 76% / 33% <br /> <br />JAS (10) <br />OND (6) <br /> <br />0.03/0.04/0.03 <br /> <br />4 (1) / 3 (2) 78% / 20% <br />0(0) /4(2) 73% / 37% <br /> <br />0.03/0.05/0.18 <br /> <br />All <br /> <br />0.03/0.05/0.07 <br /> <br />12(4)/13(8) 81%/35% <br />
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