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<br />A priori skill assessment <br /> <br />Bias-corrected cross-validated (5 decades held out) Heidke skill scores <br />(HSS) within the 1951-99 (WY) training period. This is based on <br />climate divisions that were developed separately for four cardinal <br />seasons (JFM, .., OND). Forecast equations frozen in 2003. <br /> <br />Season <br /> <br />HSS <br /> <br />#0.15/0.31 % station coverage <br /> <br />JFM (9) <br />AMJ (9) <br />JAS(10) <br />OND (6) <br /> <br />0.22 <br /> <br />4 of9/ 4 >95% <br /> <br />0.12 <br /> <br />2 of9/ 1 >95% <br /> <br />0.14 <br /> <br />5 of 10/ - >95% <br /> <br />0.17 <br /> <br />4 of 6 / - >95% <br /> <br />All <br /> <br />0.18 <br /> <br />15 of34/ 5 >95% <br />