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<br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />each generating unit's output for 1986. The heat rates, loading blocks, forced outages, <br />fuel costs, maintenance schedules, and purchase power schedules of each unit of <br />each utility were modeled. The benchmark runs were verified by the utilities, and the <br />model was calibrated for a 20-year study period with a 30-year extension period. In <br />this way the calibrated model accurately represented the historical generating patterns <br />for the utilities studied. <br /> <br />The TSC decided to use either a 15- or 20-percent reserve margin depending on each <br />utility's characteristics. The medium peak load and energy forecasts and escalation <br />rates were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency of methodology and <br />assumptions. Each utility was then dispatched on the EGEAS model for the planning <br />horizon serving its own native load and making sales and purchases as appropriate. <br />The utilities were modeled to reflect current levels of interconnections and agreements <br />controlling interutility power flows. An expansion plan was prepared for each utility <br />using the EGEAS optimization dynamic program option with the exception that the <br />utility's current "most likely" expansion plan was used to schedule the units. The <br />EGEAS-optimized expansion plan established a reasonable base case for each utility <br />to compare against the cases with the pumped storage units. <br /> <br />In addition, the other Colorado utilities were simultaneously dispatched with the <br />selected primary utility system so that economy energy transfers and reserve sharing <br />could be accounted for between the systems and all existing generating capacity in <br />the state would be utilized prior to the addition of new generating capacity. Table 2-4 <br />shows the six modeling scenarios that were completed. <br /> <br />2-8 <br />