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<br />. <br /> <br />IV. Future Water Demand <br /> <br />.. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />A key underpinning of Denver Water's long -range plan is a forecast of water demand <br />over the planning horizon. The forecasting of water demand is primarily a function of <br />two variables: future growth within the service area boundary and the rates of water <br />usage for the various categories of water consumers within the service area. The growth <br />within the service area is dependent upon regional demographic forecasts of population, <br />households, and employment, along with estimates of where growth would occur. The <br />usage rates emerged from a detailed analysis of historical consumption patterns. Based <br />on this analysis, Denver Water developed a model to forecast population projections and <br />demand to the build-out of the Combined Service Area, which is assumed to occur by the <br />year 2045. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />The model results, which were examined with the help of an expert peer review group, <br />including the State Demographer, were then modified to reflect four additional factors: <br /> <br />· conservation achieved to date; <br />· "natural replacement" of plumbing fIxtures and other water using appliances; <br />· additional requirements associated with City of Denver build-out, such as <br />development around the new Denver International Airport; and <br />· the small number of fixed and special contracts which obligate Denver Water to <br />provide service to some contractors beyond the service area boundary. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Future Growth Within Denver's Service Area <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Denver Water based growth forecasts within its service area boundary on the Vision <br />2020 process of the Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG). As part of that <br />process, DRCOG assembled a Regional Economic Forecasting Task Force, including <br />staff from Denver Water, to develop a forecast of population, households, and <br />employment for the six-county Denver Metro region through the year 2020. As shown in <br />Figure IV -1, Denver's service area is only a portion of this region, so the DRCOG <br />forecast had to be adapted to Denver's service area boundary. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />The uncertainty of future development patterns caused DRCOG to develop four growth <br />scenanos: <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Dispersed <br />Corridor <br />Satellite <br />Compact <br /> <br />Continuation of urban sprawl <br />Concentration of new growth along transportation corridors <br />Concentration of new growth in satellite city centers <br />Concentration of new growth where existing infrastructure is <br />already in place, predominantly in the Central Metro area <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />25 <br />