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<br />The Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU was selected to develop a new method of <br />estimating extreme precipitation and to develop concepts of how extreme precipitation varies <br />with elevation in Colorado. One of the objectives of the study was to provide a more accurate <br />portrayal of the maximwn estimated precipitation in the mountainous areas. It is believed that a <br />more accurate estimate of the maximum estimated precipitation in the mountainous area could <br />save millions of dollars in the construction of spillways for dams. <br /> <br />A technical review group is assisting the Dam Safety Branch in reviewing the progress of the <br />research. The members of the group are Mr. Jimy Dudhia, National Center for Atmospheric <br />Research; Mr. Louis Schreiner and Mr. David Mathews, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation; and Mr. <br />Stephen Spann, consultant. <br /> <br />The draft final report was submitted by CSU on July 29,2002 and the technical review group <br />met in February 2003 to discuss the conclusions and recommendations ofthe report. The <br />conclusions of the study were disappointing to the state and the technical review group. The <br />research group was not able to provide a tool or methodology that could estimate extreme <br />precipitation within the mountainous regions of the state. The recommendations of the study <br />indicated that additional research, data collection, and analyses were required in order to develop <br />a better model to more accurately estimate extreme precipitation events within Colorado. <br /> <br />During this fiscal year scoping meetings were held with Division personnel as well as private <br />consultants and federal government officials. The purpose of these meetings was to discuss <br />technological limitations and potential alternatives to address the ongoing extreme precipitation <br />concerns. Based on these meetings and evaluations performed by dam safety branch personnel, a <br />methodology has been drafted to quantitatively reduce the estimates of extreme precipitation <br />based on established hydrologic procedures. This draft methodology will be evaluated by branch <br />personnel early next fiscal year with the hope that the methodology will be adopted for use by <br />early 2005. <br /> <br />4,2 Risk Based Profiling System <br /> <br />The Dam Safety Branch continued their efforts in using risk-based tools to help evaluate and <br />rank the jurisdictional dams in Colorado in order to more efficiently and effectively use program <br />resources. One tool that has shown promise is the Risk Based Profiling System (RBPS) as <br />developed by the Bureau of Reclamation. The Bureau of Reclamation has been using this tool <br />for a number of years for similar purposes with much success. Based on understanding of the <br />system and initial reviews, an agreement was executed with the Bureau of Reclamation for <br />adapting this system for the state. An Intergovernmental Agreement with the Bureau of <br />Reclamation was issued to revise their RBPS based on program needs. It is the Branch's goal <br />that, by the end of the next fiscal year, a modified RBPS is in place that is fully functional and <br />effective at focusing resources where they are most needed. <br /> <br />II <br />