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. . . . . . . .. .. II II .. II .. .. .. .. .. II '-- Section III Three-Year Worst Case Snpply Projection, And Emergency Drought Responses The Evergreen Metropolitan District has only one water supply and thi:\t is Bear Creek, Water Supply Shortage Stages and Triggers, and other water shortage contingency information, are included in this Section, Operating Assumptions The District established in 1996 the limits of its water supply, This was accomplished through a comprehensive study by an outside water consultant in conjunction with the District staff and its Board of Directors, The study established that the District should not attempt to serve more than about 6500 Water Tap Equivalents (WTEs), and 500 irrigation only WTEs with its existing water rights, The current water tap number is 5350 equivalent taps, including 230 irrigation taps that combined use on average 1500 acre-feet of water per year, Service of more WTEs than the combined residential and irrigation total equivalents of 7000 would likely result in unacceptable drafts against storage from Evergreen Lake in dry years, Three-Year Worst Case Water Supply Based on experiences during the recent drought, the District recognizes that it is better to enter into a water shortage alert early, at a minimal level, to establish necessary water restriction programs and policies, and to gain public support and participation, that could reduce the likelihood of more severe shortage levels later. As the community continues to become more water efficient, it may become more difficult for customers to reduce their water use during water shortages (this is called "'demand hardening"), Staff do not believe that District customers are yet approaching demand hardening, because there is still large potential water efficiency improvements in residential plumbing fixtures, appliances, and landscapes, and in the commercial, industrial, and institutional sectors, However at the end of the 2002 drought the District's customers were closer to demand hardening than before, as the average water use per residential equivalent tap dropped to 200 gallons per day, In January through July of each year, the District receives forecasts from the United States Department of Agriculture for the next water season's greatest probability for supply availability for it's source of water. The Distrcit uses this informatuion to project it's total water supply for the current and three subsequent months, Based on this information and a comparison with past actual water shortage stages and flow number triggers, a potential water shortage condition may be declared or anticipated, Historically the driest three-year sequence for the District's water supply was from 1954 to 1956, which is now used as the basis for worst case water supply forecasting, Because shortages can have serious economic and environmental impacts, the District will make every effort to limit the impact of water shortages through anticipation and prompt reaction, Because the Drought of 2002 was in severity far beyond any drought on record, a summary report of Drought 2002 Reponses is attached to this Water Conservation Plan, 7