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• <br /> 9 <br /> and Kalmbach study. It must be noted however, that the assumptions of 29.0 MAF <br /> available storage and a 7.5 MAF delivery to the Lower Basin used in the Tipton <br /> and Kalmbach study are not consistent with present Bureau operating policy. <br /> 1. Computerized Formula Results _ Extension of Period <br /> Runs were made using the computerized formula and each of the hydrology data <br /> sets with their respective full periods of record. <br /> Virgin Flows - It was determined that the addition of 16 years of data made no <br /> difference in the analysis discussed above. Using this data set, the critical <br /> period remains the same. Thus the results obtained from the analysis _remain the <br /> same. <br /> CRSS Natural Flows - By fixing two of the variables to comply with present <br /> Bureau policy, i.e. , annual delivery to the Lower Basin of 8.25 MAF and <br /> allowable storage at 26.2 MAF, it was determined that the allowable depletion in <br /> the Upper Basin would be 5.8 MAF. This is a conservative figure and is based <br /> upon the assumptions of no (zero) shortages and no additional water from bank <br /> storage release. Using the natural flows, the critical period shifted to the 25 <br /> years starting in 1953 and had an average flow of 12. 96 MAF/year at Lees Ferry. <br /> The program also determined the probabilities of meeting or exceeding a 5.8 MAF <br /> depletion. The probability is 97.96 percent based on the period of record. <br /> 2. Verification Runs - CRSS <br /> Several CRSS model runs were made to verify the formula approach as discussed <br /> above. The approach to the problem using the CRSS model is slightly different <br />