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• Discussion of Mid -term Modeling (1 -5 year time horizon) <br />o Accuracy of the 24 -month Study Model <br />■ Questions: <br />• It appears that the 24 -month study may not be as accurate in predicting actual <br />elevations in Powell and Mead as we once may have thought. Can the model <br />predictions be made more accurate? <br />• Is there a consistent bias toward one basin or the other in the 24 -month study <br />model and the departure from actual operations? <br />• How much did the prediction depart from reality this year at Powell? <br />• While forecasted hydrology is never completely accurate and this was the case <br />during the 2008 runoff season, there appeared to be other factors associated <br />with the 24 -month study model that contributed to the differences between <br />observed and projected Lake Powell conditions during water year 2008. Do we <br />need to look at changes in how the model treats bank storage or other factors? <br />• The model does not account for seepage around the dam which is consistently <br />picked up by the Lees Ferry gage. <br />• Can improvements be made in the computation/measurement of Powell inflow? <br />o Future Research Efforts <br />■ Questions: <br />• Does Reclamation prepare a minimum, maximum and most probable 24 -month <br />study every month? <br />• Can stakeholders gain access to this information on a more frequent basis? <br />• Updating the Mead Elevation - Volume -Area Tables <br />• Discussion of Opportunities for Reclamation's "Basin Studies" Funding <br />• Discussion of Possible Intentionally Created Mexico Surplus (ICMS) <br />• Information provided by Environmental Defense <br />• Questions: <br />■ Can Mexico reasonably operate an account in Mead that would provide the "pulse" <br />flows they desire? <br />■ Won't releases from Mead be subject to the Flood Control operations and the peaks <br />fully attenuate prior to reaching the NIB? <br />■ Is there a better place than Mead for such an account? <br />• Other <br />• Update on development of unused water policy in the Lower Basin <br />• Update on ICS process and plans <br />• Next steps <br />• Do we need another meeting? <br />• Prior to initiating the consultations on the next AOP, can Reclamation respond in writing to <br />these concerns and how they might be addressed? <br />