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average would have a 10% chance of occurring in any single year and would only yield <br />78 acre -feet. This is barely enough to cover evaporation from the Wadley Reservoirs if <br />irrigation use is severely restricted, such as for tree watering only, and is likely <br />insufficient to maintain fire - fighting reserves if carryover storage from the previous year <br />is minimal. Therefore, the HOA currently faces the risk of having insufficient water <br />supplies in six out of ten years and has a 10% chance of having insufficient fire- fighting <br />reserves and highly- restricted irrigation water each year or in one year in ten on average. <br />The HOA attempts to maintain as much carryover storage as possible from one year to <br />the next in order to protect against shortages in annual water deliveries. However, if <br />slightly below average to dry years come back to back, without intervening wet years to <br />replenish carryover storage, there is insufficient reservoir storage water available to <br />carryover for offsetting any large reduction in water deliveries in the second or <br />subsequent years of a dry period. <br />Table 7: Percentile Occurrence Frequency for Current Water Supplies <br />% of years with water <br />availability less than amount <br />shown <br />acre -feet of water available <br />from FHL shares at Wadley <br />Farms No. 3 head ate <br />1 % <br />56 <br />10% <br />78 <br />20% <br />105 <br />30% <br />110 <br />40% <br />117 <br />50% <br />122 <br />60% <br />132 <br />70% <br />141 <br />80% <br />158 <br />90% <br />172 <br />Alternatives for Increasing Water Supul- <br />The HOA has reviewed numerous alternatives for increasing the amount and reliability of <br />its water supplies over the past two decades. Some of these alternatives have already been <br />implemented. The HOA has increased the capacity of its reservoirs, rehabilitated the <br />dams to remove storage restrictions, applied seepage control products to the feeder <br />ditches and reservoirs, rebuilt the headgate from the Signal Ditch to access low flows, <br />installed meters at each individual lot, and implemented a system for restricting <br />homeowner water use during shortages. Other alternatives were explored, such as are <br />documented in the Bishop - Brogden report, and some are discussed below. <br />No .fiction Alternative <br />If no action is taken, the water supply for Wadley Farms No. 3 will decrease in the future. <br />The HOA has been able to lease up to 1.0 FHL share over the past decade in addition to <br />the three FHL shares owned by the HOA. However. the owner of 0.125 of these shares <br />Wadley Farms No. 3 Water Supply CWCB Loan Feasibility Study Page 21 <br />