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4. OPERATIONAL CLOUD SEEDING PHASE ' <br />4.1. General Features <br />The operational seeding phase recommended in this plan is for 10 years of cloud seeding duration. <br />Though there is no guarantee, it is believed that a 10 -year period is not likely to be dominated by one ' <br />prominent climate type such as drought. From a seeding result evaluation standpoint, it is preferable to <br />encounter dry, wet and normal periods. Preferably, the sample sizes over a 10 -year period would be <br />adequate for seeding result evaluation on each climate type. Also, a permit period of 10 to 15 years for ' <br />program field equipment siting seems prudent, given the substantial effort necessary to comply with <br />permitting requirements and environmental regulation. <br />The operational seeding phase cannot be described in substantial detail until the design phase is ' <br />conducted. It is anticipated that some field data collection will be necessary to at least periodically verify <br />that clouds are receiving treatment and responses are obtained. The data collection must be adequate to ' <br />satisfy needs of the operational phase evaluation, including extensive precipitation data collection. Some <br />automated photography of snow crystals should be considered if the proper equipment is assembled and <br />tested in the design phase. Prudent choices of data collection will reduce manpower and equipment needs <br />and save money, yet provide physical information adequate to confirm that statistical evaluation results <br />from precipitation were caused by cloud seeding. Periodic tracer work may be prudent particularly since <br />the terrain varies highly in the Headwaters Region. Studies conducted by other agencies may contribute <br />valuable verification of results. <br />It is clear that a strong and credible evaluation program must be an integral part of the operational seeding <br />phase. An evaluation plan developed in the design phase must be implemented before operational ' <br />seeding begins. It is likely that some limited randomization will be necessary in the operational phase. A <br />possibility is the use of a randomly moving, limited -area control. Randomly selected zone(s) would <br />intentionally not be targeted and therefore act as a control. Covariates will likely play a role in the , <br />evaluation to decrease natural variation. <br />Weather and cloud modeling is expected to continue during the operational phase to assist what is likely ' <br />to be a limited forecasting mode in the operational phase. While an automated seeding system should <br />largely conduct the cloud seeding, some weather forecasting and operations declaration is useful in <br />scheduling equipment maintenance and specific data collection. The extent of data collection and day -to- <br />day work functions will need to be determined in the design phase <br />Precipitation gauges will assess additional precipitation deposited from cloud seeding in the intended <br />target area. Application of a watershed model is needed to estimate streamflow increases from snowpack <br />enhancement. <br />4.2. Operational Seeding Protocol <br />On a broad basis, the operational seeding phase will consist of determining the seedable cases, <br />conducting the seeding, and complying with the evaluation design (includes the conduct of scheduled <br />data analysis). All potential cases will be treated within the evaluation design, environmental compliance <br />rules and established seeding suspension criteria. , <br />The day -to -day operational duties include some or all of the following. <br />20 <br />