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term augmentation of Colorado River supplies." While working out such details may cause tension among the states, Sid Wilson, general manager of the Central Arizona Water Conservation District, believes that tension will play an important role in keeping the parties together "because nobody wants to fail." The overarching issue for the river's future management — high- lighted by the major components of the seven states' preliminary proposal — is the basin's anticipated urban growth. The fact that there is not enough water in the system to keep pace with that demand was brought home by the severity of the drought. At the Foundation's September symposium, former Interior Secretary Bruce Babbitt acknowledged concern about the "drought scenarios and shortage issues that we now confront and must confront, and will continue to confront." But, he added, "We all knew they were coming and we have known they were coming for 50 years. At last they're here, and they're not going away. The combined forces of every- one now at or near their full alloca- tion, and a long -term appreciation of the quality of [water supply] estimates that were made back in 1922, will make certain that these contentious issues are here for a long time." Culp agreed. "We seem to be entering a new phase of Colorado River management where we've reached full — or maybe more than full — development of the river," he said in September. "As a result, we're moving from a period of relative abundance of water on the river towards a future where we're going to have to work quite a bit harder to meet the water needs of people as well as the environ- ment and agriculture in both the United States and Mexico." How major a role climate change will play as stakeholders confront the future is unknown. Because while studies have predicted the increase of temperatures in the Colorado River JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2006 Basin attributable to climate change, predicting the potential changes in precipitation is much more difficult. Data collected over the last 55 to 75 years, according to Greg Garfin, program manager for the Climate Assessment of the Southwest at the University of Arizona, have shown a long -term decrease in snowpack and increasingly early spring snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada and the Cascades. But while some monitoring in the Upper Basin has shown slight in- creases in early spring snowmelt and declines in late spring stream flow, Garfin said the patterns are not as strong as those for the Sierra Nevada and Cascades. In an article in the "Colorado River Basin Climate" publication released by the California Department of Water Resources, Garfin noted that while scientists are confident in the Basin's warming trends projected across all models, projected precipitation decreases in the Basin are "relatively inconsistent, hence less reliable." Perhaps the USGS' Gray summed it up best at the symposium. "At the very least," he said, "when you do have drought conditions, use it as, if not a wake up call, an opportunity to adapt your system and your policies to the fact that the environment is always going to be changing and drought is a fact of life in the western United States." It took an extraordinary drought to help bring about an extraordinary consensus - based, seven -state proposal that would make sweeping changes to the future management of the Colorado River. But much work remains to be done before the pro- posed actions are implemented. "It is a remarkable achievement for the seven states to come together. It's something we've been working on for close to a decade. And it's just remark- able progress and we hope we can keep this up," said Jeffrey Kightlinger, general manager and CEO for MWD. He added, "I'm certain the spirit of Dennis Underwood was looking on and applauding our efforts."