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reconstructions. The trees capture <br />both year -to -year variations and <br />multi -year anomalies. All of the re- <br />constructions show a broader range <br />of variability in streamflow than <br />that seen in the much shorter gaged <br />flow records, including one -year <br />droughts similar to or worse than <br />2002 and multi -year events worse <br />than those of the 1930s or 1950s <br />(Figure 4). <br />Application of the reconstructions <br />The reconstructed streamflows are <br />400000 <br />d <br />v 300000 <br />c 200000 <br />LL <br />N <br />100000 <br />a <br />1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 <br />Figure 4. Blue River at Dillon Reservoir tree -ring reconstructed annual streamflow, 1450 -2002 <br />(thin line) with a S year filter (thick line) showing multi -year events. Several years (e.g., 1685, <br />1845) have reconstructed flows lower than the reconstructed and gaged flow for 2002 (- 105,000 <br />acre feet). <br />used by our partners as inputs for <br />their water supply models to test the ability of their systems to meet demand under the broader range of flow conditions <br />represented by the reconstructions. Even with the inherent uncertainties in any paleoclimate reconstruction, and the under- <br />standing that past conditions are not direct analogs of future conditions, the tree -ring derived streamflow reconstructions are <br />considered valuable information and have been incorporated into the decision - making process for water management in the <br />region. <br />Future work <br />Over the next year, we plan to expand the spatial coverage of our reconstructions to include other major river basins in <br />Colorado. We will also expand the range of data products available. We have had promising results in using latewood —the <br />part of the annual ring more responsive to summer conditions —in reconstructing summer drought and thus overall water <br />demand. We are also applying an approach from short-term climate forecasting —the ensemble method —to better under- <br />stand the uncertainty in our tree -ring reconstructions. With the ensemble method, many model solutions, each based on a <br />different calibration period and using a different set of predictors, are generated. The spread of the solutions for each annual <br />value varies and thus provides insight into the temporal variability of uncertainty in the tree -ring data. <br />TreeFlow web pages <br />- introduce and describe the project, <br />- explain the reconstruction process in detail, and <br />- provide access to the reconstructed and gaged flow data. <br />e intend the site to be a general resource for the water <br />sources community, and the data are freely available. The <br />;bsite provides our contact information if you have ques- <br />ins about the project. <br />cd+Pate�dirYi�tQtogy-,Ffogram <br />eocaamaa =,,. <br />TreeFlow <br />Treerting-reamnstwe[ioms <br />- aadie >nsi resources <br />F1:aF rzltery <br />References <br />Schulman, E. 1945. Tree -ring hydrology of the Colorado Basin. University of Arizona Bulletin 16(4). Laboratory of Tree -Ring <br />Research Bul letin No. 2. 51 pp. <br />Stockton, C., and G. Jacoby. 1976. Long -term surface water supply and streamflow levels in the Upper Colorado River Basin. <br />Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin No. 18, University of California, 70 pp. <br />Acknowledgments <br />Funding was provided by National Science Foundation grants ATM - 9729571 and ATM - 0080889; NOAA Office of Global Pro- <br />grams grant GCO2 -046; Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program - Western Water Assessment; and Denver Water. <br />Undepleted gaged streamflow data for the Blue River provided by Denver Water. <br />