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48 <br />Modelling the captive population since its establishment indicates a growth rate of only <br />1.1 % through 1991 (SD -0.114). At that rate the population would only be 127 birds at the <br />end of 100 years and only 89% of the initial heterozygosity would be-retained. However, <br />the group noted that improvements should be achievable over the next 1 to 5 years. In <br />fact, major improvements in production occurred in 1992 and 1993, indicating that the <br />captive flocks will be able to sustain a reintroduction program if these improved production <br />levels continue. <br />