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i F= <br />vulnerable habit of nesting on low river bars and other land surfaces exposed <br />to the rigors of the plains climate (rainstorms, wind storms, hail, floods, and <br />intense heat), low production is undoubtedly a regular occurrence. As reported <br />by McNicholl (1975), nesting in widely fluctuating habitats requires flexibil- <br />ity in selecting nest sites, but unstable or immediately stable habitat may not <br />prove successful every year. Hardy (1957) commented that sudden rises of water <br />sufficient to inundate tern colonies are particularly likely in streams <br />traversing the plains region, and in many colonies (especially those on low <br />bars) floods take a heavy toll. He further stated that the "extremely high <br />mortality" of young least terns up to the flying stage is compensated by low <br />mortality in adults. <br />For California least terns, Atwood and Massey (1981) indicated that a <br />production rate of 1.0 -1.5 fledglings /nesting pair is considered good success, <br />0.50 -1.0 /pair is moderate, and 0 -0.5 /pair is poor. For Atlantic Coast least <br />terns, on the other hand, Burger (1984) considered colonies producing more than <br />0.5 fledglings /nesting pair as successful, and those producing 0.25 -0.49 <br />fledglings /pair as moderately successful. Burger additionally reported that <br />reproductive success for least tern colonies in New Jersey averaged 0.48 <br />fledglings /nesting pair (range: 0.2 to 0.8 fledglings /pair) over the 5 -year <br />period 1978 -1982 during which time the number of breeding birds increased <br />significantly. Ultimately, however, determination of whether a given <br />production rate results in population increase or decrease is dependent on the <br />level of production necessary to maintain a stable or self- sustaining <br />population (where mortality in the breeding stock is balanced by production). <br />Because of more rapid population turnover, short -lived species require higher <br />production rates to maintain their populations. Consequently, the long life <br />span of the least tern (one banded bird lived to be 21 years old [Wingfield <br />1982]) is of definite survival importance. Based on a 10 -year breeding span <br />for adult least terns (Wingfield 1982), and assuming 33 percent mortality from <br />fledgling stage to reproductive maturity at age 2, the mean annual production <br />rate required to maintain a self - sustaining population would be 0.30 <br />fledglings /nesting pair. <br />Maintenance of a self- sustaining production rate of 0.30 fledglings /nesting <br />pair would, in effect, require that each pair of adult least terns in the <br />population produce three fledglings any time during their 10 -year breeding <br />span. Lower production one year could be offset by higher production the next, <br />or higher production at one nesting area could compensate for lower production <br />at another. Within this context, cumulative production rates above 0.30 <br />fledglings /nesting pair would affect population growth, whereas lower rates <br />would affect population decline. If subsequent information indicates the <br />average number of breeding years per adult is less than or greater than 10, or <br />that juvenile mortality is less than or greater than 33 percent, then a higher <br />or lower production rate would be necessary to achieve a self- sustaining <br />population. <br />Production data for piping plovers, which in Nebraska utilize the same types of <br />nesting habitat as least terns, also reflect considerable variability between <br />years and from one location to the next. Along the Platte River, production <br />rates reported at sandpit colonies in 1984 (1.80 fledglings /nesting pair) were <br />substantially higher than those reported at sandpit or river sandbar colonies <br />in 1986 (0.27 and 0.23 fledglings /nesting pair, respectively). Along the <br />Missouri River, approximately 0.24 piping plover young per nesting pair were <br />vi <br />