Water, Climate and Uncertanity: An Introduction to the Issues, Language, Literature and the Conference Materials June 11-13 2003

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PART II: WHAT SHOULD CLIMATE RESEARCHERS KNOW ABOUT THE REALM OF WESTERN WATER LAW, POLICY AND MANAGEMENT? Many, if not most, physical scientists have experienced a situation in which new information or scientific understanding was developed with the potential to improve actual resource management, but for a variety of reasons, this promise was never realized. This pattern is certainly well ingrained in the climate research community, in part due the failure of some scientists to understand the decision making context, and partly due to the hesitancy of many decision makers to seek out and use new information. Understanding these factors is a prerequisite to making climate research more relevant to the decision - making community. CLIMATE ISSUES IN CONTEXT Part of the challenge of using climate information in the realm of water law, policy, planning and management is that climate change and variability can simultaneously influence every aspect of system design and operation, from the location and sizing of facilities, to the design of reservoir operating rules, to inflow quantities and timing, and perhaps most overlooked, to the magnitude and timing of demands. If these and other parameters are all likely to be affected in complex ways that can only be described in terms of probabilities, it is hard to blame decision makers for hanging onto traditional —and more "manageable " — mechanisms for making water - related decisions. This is especially true given that many of the other threats and stresses on western water systems are much better understood by the law, policy and management community. At the top of this list are the demographic changes occurring in the region, and the heightening competition for limited supplies. The cumulative demands on the West's water resources are many and growing. In most western states, 80 to 95 percent of water withdrawals are used in agriculture. Although this use has peaked or declined in most areas, these water savings are generally being offset by rapid increases in municipal water demands. Despite the traditional image of the rural westerner, the distribution of the region's 63 million people is increasingly concentrated in cities — particularly in the "Sunbelt" cities of the Southwest — making the West the most highly urbanized region of the United States (in percentage terms). In just the 1990s, the region's population grew by almost 20 percent, with the fastest rates of growth found in the most and states.9 This urbanization is expected to continue, with the West adding approximately 1 million new residents per year for the next two decades. Population growth will further increase the competition for limited supplies, not only between rural and urban users, but also between human uses and environmental values. In both variants, this competition for water is not merely about adequate supply, but about obtaining adequate supplies at desired levels of quality, cost and reliability. Primarily due to population growth, a recent Interior Department study entitled Water 2025 describes impending water conflict as "highly likely" in several western basins, including Colorado's Front Range; the middle Rio Grande in New Mexico; the Lower Colorado River between Arizona, California and Nevada; California's Central Valley; the 9 In the 1990s, the nation's five fastest growing states, in order, were Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and Idaho. 0