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3.1.4.1 Goals and CMINs <br />2 The results of the 2005 Science Planning Group (SPG) prioritization of CMINs (see Appendix A) have <br />3 been used to guide the development of the monitoring protocols for the individual core monitoring plans. <br />4 The priorities and ranking of core monitoring information needs by the SPG are primary criteria used in <br />5 developing the individual plans. <br />6 <br />7 In the future, quantitative indicators of desired future conditions (DFCs) may be defined by TWG and <br />8 AMWG to further focus core monitoring approaches. Until quantitative DFC are developed, this program <br />9 will move forward with developing individual monitoring plans based on existing AMWG guidance, and <br />10 incorporating trade -off analyses and risk assessments as appropriate, with the recognition that some plans <br />11 may need to be revisited and refined after DFCs are established. At that point, plans can be modified to be <br />12 more responsive to the DFCs. It is likely that in the absence of clearly articulated DFCs, the plans will <br />13 have to be broader in scope, and thus may be more costly to implement in the near term. <br />14 3.1.4.2 Criteria <br />15 The primary criteria for the development of monitoring protocols and the eventual core monitoring plans <br />16 themselves are the CMINs, (Appendix A). In the future, the TWG may develop additional specific <br />17 criteria for determining which elements of a given plan are essential to include and which ones are less <br />18 essential. These criteria could include: <br />19 <br />20 • Priority: a specific resource or a specific indicator of resource condition is a high priority for the <br />21 program to monitor <br />22 • Confidence: activities with high confidence of relating to changes in dam operations or eventual <br />23 definition of DFCs <br />24 • Adequacy: to answer critical questions and inform critical decisions in the program. <br />25 <br />26 3.1.4.3 Trade Off Analyses for Risk Assessment Purposes <br />27 As needed, trade -off analyses will be conducted to provide managers with information needed for <br />28 subsequent risk assessments that they may wish to perform in order to weigh the risks of making <br />29 decisions based on monitoring data of various levels of accuracy or precision and their associated costs. <br />30 <br />31 Examples of trade -off analyses that might be undertaken include: <br />32 <br />33 • Analyses of trade -offs between statistical precision, sampling intensity /extent and costs, and the <br />34 scientific implications of these trade -offs. (A series of options might be evaluated which show <br />35 how the power is reduced, or other effects including costs are altered, by either reducing or <br />36 increasing sampling intensity or extent) <br />37 • Trade -offs in monitoring design and statistical rigor (including the use of power analysis to <br />38 develop designs and set sampling levels to achieve desired precision) <br />39 <br />31 <br />