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9. What is the probability of Powell being below elevation 3490 (minimum power pool) <br />at any time in the 5th, 10th, and 201h year (point), and at any time over the next 5, 10, <br />and 20 years (period)? <br />• CRSS -Lite model output slot: "PowellData MarchElevation" <br />• Only end of March values used <br />• Output file has 90 traces across the x -axis, 20 years down the y -axis <br />• For each trace: <br />0 1 = at least one value < 3489.5 during the specified time period <br />0 0 = no values < 3489.5 during the specified time period <br />• Result was 90 values across, either a 1 or 0 for each trace <br />• Probability = (sum of the 90 values) divided by (90) <br />10. What is the probability of making a less than 8.23 MAF release from Powell at any <br />time in the 5th, 10th, and 20th year (point), and at any time over the next 5, 10, and 20 <br />years (period)? <br />• CRSS -Lite model output slot: "PowellData WaterYearRelease" <br />• Output file has 90 traces across the x -axis, 20 years down the y -axis <br />• For each trace: <br />0 1 = at least one value < 8,229,990 during the specified time period <br />0 0 = no values < 8,229,990 during the specified time period <br />• Result was 90 values across, either a 1 or 0 for each trace <br />• Probability = (sum of the 90 values) divided by (90) <br />11. What is the probability of making a greater than 8.25 MAF release from Powell at <br />any time in the 5th, 10th, and 20th year (point), and at any time over the next 5, 10, and <br />20 years (period)? <br />• CRSS -Lite model output slot: "PowellData WaterYearRelease" <br />• Output file has 90 traces across the x -axis, 20 years down the y -axis <br />• For each trace: <br />o 1 = at least one value > 8,255,000 during the specified time period <br />o 0 = no values > 8,255,000 during the specified time period <br />• Result was 90 values across, either a 1 or 0 for each trace <br />• Probability = (sum of the 90 values) divided by (90) <br />Model runs analyzed: <br />• Powell Normal <br />• Tiered Rel Rev <br />• DD2 revl <br />Supporting documentation: <br />• GuideToRuns_8.22.05.doc <br />• Scenario Explanation for Aug 22 <br />mtg.v2.xls <br />• Explanation Matrix.xls <br />Border: yellow <br />USBR Draft Page 3 of 3 9/19/2005 <br />