Basin States Modeling Results Matrix Version 6 September 19 2005

• Description: Basin States Modeling Results Matrix Version 6 September 19 2005
• State: CO
• Date: 9/19/2005
• Title: Basin States Modeling Results Matrix Version 6 September 19 2005
• Water Supply Pro - Doc Type: Meeting

5. What is the probability of Mead being below elevation 1050 (minimum power pool)
at any time in the 5th, 10th, and 201h year (point), and at any time over the next 5, 10,
and 20 years (period)?
• CRSS -Lite model output slot: "Mead Pool Elevation"
• Output file has 90 traces across the x -axis, 20 years down the y -axis
• For each trace:
o 1 = at least one value < 1050 during the specified time period
o 0 = no values < 1050 during the specified time period
• Result was 90 values across, either a 1 or 0 for each trace
• Probability = (sum of the 90 values) divided by (90)
6. What is the probability of Mead being below elevation 1000 (SHWA lower intake) at
any time in the 5th, 10th, and 20th year (point), and at any time over the next 5, 10, and
20 years (period)?
• CRSS -Lite model output slot: "Mead Pool Elevation"
• Output file has 90 traces across the x -axis, 20 years down the y -axis
• For each trace:
o I= at least one value < 1000 during the specified time period
o 0 =no values < 1000 during the specified time period
• Result was 90 values across, either a 1 or 0 for each trace
• Probability = (sum of the 90 values) divided by (90)
7. What is the most probable Powell elevation in the 5t ", 10th, and 20" year (point), and
at any time over the next 5, 10, and 20 years (period)?
• CRSS -Lite model output slot: "Powell Pool Elevation"
• Output file has 90 traces across the x -axis, 20 years down the y -axis
• For each time period, the median value was noted
o 5 years = median of 90x5 values
o 10 years= median of 90x 10 values
o 20 years = median of 90x21 values
8. What is the probability of Powell being above elevation 3630 (equalization) at any
time in the 5th, 10th, and 20th year (point), and at any time over the next 5, 10, and 20
years (period)?
• CRSS -Lite model output slot: "Powell Pool Elevation"
• Output file has 90 traces across the x -axis, 20 years down the y -axis
• For each trace:
o 1 = at least one value > 3630 during the specified time period
o 0 = no values > 3630 during the specified time period
• Result was 90 values across, either a I or 0 for each trace
• Probability = (sum of the 90 values) divided by (90)
USSR Draft Page 2 of 3 9/19/2005