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Modeling Results for <br />Colorado River Basin States' Modeling of <br />Colorado River and Reservoir Management Strategies <br />General Modeling Assumptions <br />1) Runs performed in CRSS -Lite <br />2) All model runs were performed with a start year of 2006 and a run length of 55 <br />years (2006 - 2060). Analyses, in terms of effects on reservoir water surface <br />levels, were performed and are presented for only the initial 20 years (2006- <br />2025) of the modeled period. This initial 20 year period is considered to be the <br />most critical period. Also, beyond this initial 20 year period, the operational and <br />demand projections have a higher degree of uncertainty. <br />3) Powell initial elevation: 3608.56 ft <br />Mead initial elevation: 113 5.5 0 ft <br />(EOCY 2005 elevations as projected by the July 2005 24 -Month Study) <br />4) Future hydrology was generated from the 90 -year historic record of natural <br />flows (1906 -1995) at twenty -nine (29) separate inflow points on the system <br />using the Index Sequential Method. 90 simulations were performed. Natural <br />flow is a calculated value that represents the flow of the Colorado River without <br />human influences such as agriculture, municipal and industrial uses, and <br />reservoirs. <br />5) Future water demands for Lower and Upper Basin diversions are based on <br />depletion projections prepared by the Basin States and published in the SIA- <br />FEIS, Volume H, Appendix G, with the exception of the Imperial Irrigation <br />District (IID), the Coachella Water District (CVWD), and the Metropolitan <br />Water District of Southern California (MWD). Depletion schedules under <br />normal conditions for IID, MWD, and CVWD are as specified by the Colorado <br />River Water Delivery Agreement (Exhibit B) and include paybacks for 2001 and <br />2002 (Exhibit Q. References for all other depletion schedules are as follows: <br />a) Future water demands under normal conditions for all other Lower Basin <br />diversions, SIA -FEIS, Volume II, Appendix G, Attachment A. <br />b) Future water demands under surplus conditions for all Lower Basin <br />diversions, SIA -FEIS, Volume II, Appendix G, Attachment C. <br />c) Future water demands for all Upper Basin diversions, SIA -FEIS, Volume II, <br />Appendix G, Attachment B. <br />6) Under normal conditions, the depletion schedule for the Mexican delivery is set <br />to 1.572 MAF per year. The additional 72 KAF over Mexico's basic <br />apportionment of 1.5 MAF reflects the average over - deliveries to Mexico for the <br />period 1964 -2003 (excluding years when there were flood control releases on the <br />Colorado main stem or Gila River). Under Lake Mead flood control release <br />KI <br />