Summary Report ‎(Working Draft)‎ Modeling of Reservoir Management Strategies for Lakes Powell and Mead December 2005

• Description: Summary Report ‎(Working Draft)‎ Modeling of Reservoir Management Strategies for Lakes Powell and Mead December 2005
• State: CO
• Title: Summary Report ‎(Working Draft)‎ Modeling of Reservoir Management Strategies for Lakes Powell and Mead December 2005
• Water Supply Pro - Doc Type: Meeting

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Modeling Results for
Colorado River Basin States' Modeling of
Colorado River and Reservoir Management Strategies
3.3 Lower Basin Shortage
3.3.1 Probability of Shortage
50%
45%
40%
35%
m
u
30%
u
u
O 25%
w
0
3
20%
R
n
0
p` 15%
10%
5%
0% 4—
2005
Figure 3 -8
Probability of Shortage
--0- Normal - Step Shortage Original
--&- Hybrid - Step Short Original
-t} Hybrid Rev1 - Step Short Rev1
2010 2015 2020 2025
Calendar Year
Shortages are triggered under Hybrid rev when Mead reaches 1100 ft. Under the
other two strategies, shortage begins when Mead reaches 1075 ft. In Figure 3 -8,
notice the effect of starting shortages earlier under Hybrid Revl : the probability is
consistently higher and shortage occurs 2 and 3 years before the Hybrid and
Normal strategies, respectively.
3.3.2 Cumulative Shortage
14
Table 3 -1
Maximum Cumulative Shortage Volume (KAF)
Year
Normal
Hybrid
Hybrid
revl
2010
0
400
1,200
2015
2,100
2,600
3,600
2020
4,900
5,600
6,600
2025
7,900
8,600
9,400