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based guidance. This implies that `training' data are available in order to train the <br />modeling approach how vulnerability to drought has been experienced on the ground. <br />The general approach will utilize a vulnerability assessment method based on work by <br />Wilhelmi and Wilhite (2002) and Fontaine and Steinmann (2009), and will use measures <br />of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity integrated in a GIS -based assessment of <br />drought vulnerability. The core of this approach is based on three primary variables: 1) <br />exposure; 2) sensitivity; and 3) adaptive capacity. Exposure incorporates frequency and <br />severity of drought; severity includes magnitude, duration, and spatial extent. Sensitivity <br />is the susceptibility of a water user (or users) to the effects of the drought. Adaptive <br />capacity is the ability of a water user to manage or reduce adverse effects of a drought, <br />through actions taken before, during, or after the drought. <br />Using this theoretical approach as a foundation, AMEC will generate relevant measures <br />of vulnerability, and an assessment approach to evaluate exposure, sensitivity, and <br />adaptive capacity using information and evaluations from reports, state databases, and <br />interviews conducted as part of this project. This approach will afford a perspective on <br />vulnerability by obtaining information about drought impact experiences and by <br />investigating links between the drought hazard, impacts, and behavior to mitigate <br />impacts. AMEC will investigate factors of vulnerability by researching recent accounts of <br />drought and conducting a limited number of focused communications (i.e., sampling) <br />with key water users as appropriate. This work will be used to develop a weighting of <br />each of the three main variables (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) for each <br />unit being assessed (e.g., 1 = very low, 2 = low, 3 = medium, 4 = high, and 5 = <br />extreme). Each weighting corresponds to a score (Table 1). Component scores will then <br />be combined to produce a vulnerability score (v): <br />V •(E ') /A <br />where E = exposure; S = sensitivity; and A = adaptive capacity. <br />This approach incorporates information on impacts through the assessment of <br />exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Exposure and sensitivity determine <br />impact, while adaptive capacity determines the fraction of the potential impact that <br />becomes an actual impact. The combination of the three components results in a net <br />impact or vulnerability to the drought. For example, a greater hazard exposure and thus <br />higher sensitivity lead to higher potential impacts and higher vulnerability; higher <br />adaptive capacity reduces vulnerability due to resilience. Exposure and sensitivity may <br />be weighted equally, or weights can be adjusted to incorporate detailed understanding <br />of each factor and the manner in which they relate to each other, where information <br />exists to enable this. Finally we will use data on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive <br />capacity to calculate vulnerability scores for elements being assessed, extrapolate <br />these results as necessary (e.g., when a sample has been used to represent the larger <br />group) and then generate average results for sectors within a region of the state (e.g., <br />water division, watershed, county or other appropriate boundary selected with input <br />from CWCB). <br />