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E. Project Approach <br />Objective of the Work <br />This project will result in two components of the State of Colorado Drought Mitigation <br />and Response Plan: 1) a vulnerability assessment for the state; 2) a plan to mitigate <br />those identified risks & vulnerabilities. Drought can be defined as an extended shortfall <br />of precipitation that results in water supplies inadequate to meet the requirements of <br />humans and the environment (Wilhite and Buchanan - Smith, 2005) and takes place on a <br />regular basis as part of the natural hydrologic cycle. Competition arising from increased <br />water demands has created greater and more complex drought impacts than ever <br />experienced in the past, increasing vulnerability and exacerbating the impacts of <br />drought across various sectors and physiographic provinces of Colorado. Greater <br />demand for finite water supplies has resulted from population growth, migration of <br />people from rural to urban settings, changes in agricultural practices, changes in land <br />use, and the desire to protect natural systems. <br />Assessments of drought vulnerability have typically emphasized physical drought <br />hazard, while the foundations of drought and strategies for drought hazard adaptation <br />and mitigation are frequently afterthoughts in the planning process, or are omitted <br />entirely. AMEC will develop an approach that will be used to assess vulnerability in a <br />comprehensive yet flexible manner. The flexibility of our vulnerability assessment <br />approach will allow us to meet basic FEMA requifements also- -ta determine -the -risk <br />and vulnerability of state assets and various sectors to drought, and how the state might <br />mitigate drought impacts. This flexibility will be achieved by applying a hybrid <br />assessment approach that utilizes both qualitative and quantitative methods. <br />AMEC will develop and refine the vulnerability assessment approach in close <br />collaboration with the state, the aim being to provide a vulnerability assessment <br />framework that is applicable to the state's needs and scalable in terms of the spatial <br />resolution and precision of results the vulnerability assessment can achieve. The goal is <br />to collect, organize and analyze relevant drought- related impact data, and then to <br />assess this information to determine the vulnerability of various state assets and <br />vulnerable sectors. We will utilize existing CDSS tools and data where appropriate, and <br />where necessary we will collect new data and develop appropriate tools and models <br />that can assist us with vulnerability analysis. The AMEC vulnerability assessment <br />approach will, to the extent possible, be designed in such a manner that when new and <br />enhanced data on drought hazard, drought adaptive capacities, and state assets <br />become available, this information will be able to be incorporated in order to refine <br />assessments of vulnerability and to better guide adaptive responses to drought. <br />Global climate change is now recognized as a major new factor that must be considered <br />in assessing future drought hazard. Higher temperatures tend to increase evaporation <br />and vegetative demand for water (transpiration) and consequently are likely to reduce <br />water available for stream flow and ground -water recharge. Local regions in the Rocky <br />Mountains, however, may see more (and warmer) precipitation in winter and less in <br />spring and early summer. When the character of precipitation changes from slowly <br />melting winter snowpacks or regular seasonal rains to short- duration, high - intensity <br />