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2.1 DURANGO'S DEMOGRAPHIC CONTEXT <br />Any analysis of park and recreation needs must take into account Durango's <br />specific population dynamics: the significant influence of County and tourist <br />visitors, in addition to the City's overall projected growth. <br />The 1997 Comprehensive Plan projects a growth rate ranging from 0.5% to 3% per <br />year. For the general purpose of establishing an order -of- magnitude, future <br />projection we show below an average of 1.8% growth over the next 20 years, <br />which yields a 2020 population of approximately 21,000. This represents a <br />cumulative increase of 42 %. This increase alone will demand a significant increase <br />in public recreation facilities. <br />Durango also receives a significant tourism influx both in the summer and winter <br />that is not reflected in the above population figures. For example, it is estimated <br />that Durango receives up to 200,000 visitors each year related to the Durango & <br />Silverton Narrow Gauge Railroad. Mesa Verde is thought to bring approximately <br />700,000 tourists annually to the general Durango area. Many of these regional <br />tourists visit Durango and take advantage of City park and recreation amenities <br />such as the Animas River Trail, Santa Rita Park, rafting on the Animas River, and <br />mountain biking. They also utilize the City's park facilities to picnic, relax, get <br />exercise, walk their dogs, etc. (Although this usage is thought to be significant, it is <br />difficult to measure and therefore is not reflected in the level -of- service <br />calculations in this Master Plan.) <br />Similarly, Durango is a commercial and service center for La Plata County. Many <br />residents of the County that reside outside the City take advantage of Durango's <br />park facilities and recreation programs. For example, Durango's youth sport <br />registration records for 2000 show that non -city residents accounted for 56% of the <br />j�M o r k.t �; a <br />, at °d�+s" <br />