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<br />t <br /> <br />YOUNG COLORADO PIKEMINNOW RECRUITMENT <br /> <br />within or among years, an understanding of recruitment <br />variation at multiple temporal and spatial scales can <br />help identify factors that regulate fish communities and <br />focus conservation efforts for rare species (Hjort 1914; <br />Methot 1983; Rice et al. 1987; Gaines et al. 1985; <br />Connell 1985; Doherty 1991; Garvey et al. 2002). <br />The Colorado pikeminnow Ptychocheilus lucius is an <br />endangered species (under the U.S. Endangered <br />Species Act) endemic to the Colorado River basin in <br />the American Southwest Distribution and abundance <br />of this large, piscivorous cyprinid have been reduced by <br />human-induced changes to the physical and biological <br />environment Physical changes are largely due to <br />construction and operation of danIs, which restrict <br />movement of Colorado pikeminnow; reduce seasonal <br />discharge variability, water temperature, and sediment <br />load; and increase daily hydrograph variation (Vanicek <br />and Kramer 1969; Holden 1979; Tyus and Karp 1989; <br />Tyus 1991; Stanford et al. 1996). Biological changes <br />are mostly related to establishment of over 60 nonnative <br />fishes, which may compete with or prey upon native <br />fishes (Carlson and Muth 1989; Minckley and Deacon <br />1991). As a result, distribution and abundance of <br />natural populations of Colorado pikeminnow have <br />declined and are currently restricted to a few individuals <br />in the San Juan River and more substantial populations <br />in the upper Colorado River basin upstream of Lake <br />Powell (platania et al.. 1991; Tyus 1991). <br />In upper Colorado River basin streams, the Green <br />River population of Colorado pikeminnow is thought <br />to be the largest, but recruitment of age-O fish in <br />autumn varies annually (Tyus 1991; Tyus and Haines <br />1991; Osmundson and Burnham 1998; Bestgen et al. <br />2005). Recruitment variation may be due, in part, to <br />intra-annual and interannual variation in abundance of <br />nonnative cyprinids in backwaters, which may compete <br />with or prey upon co-occuring early life stages of <br />Colorado pikeminnow throughout their first summer <br />and autumn of life (Tyus and Haines 1991; Tyus and <br />Saunders 2000). Nonnative fishes include cyprinids <br />(<80 mm total length [TL]) such as red shiners <br />Cyprinella lutrensis, fathead minnow Pimephales <br />promelas, and sand shiners Notropis stramineus, which <br />compose 90-99% of the fish community in backwaters <br />(Haines and Tyus 1990; J. M. Bundy and K. R. <br />Bestgen, unpublished report evaluating the interagency <br />standardized monitoring program sampling technique <br />in backwaters of the Colorado River). Although these <br />small minnows have generally been overlooked as <br />piscivores, predation by red shiners on cypriniform <br />larvae has been documented (Ruppert et al. 1993; <br />Brandenburg and Gido 1999). Red shiners have been <br />widely introduced in many streams in the western U. <br />S., and given their high densities, even modest rates of <br /> <br />1723 <br /> <br />predation may be an important source of mortality for <br />early life stages of native fishes, including Colorado <br />pikeminnow. Understanding sources of Colorado pike- <br />minnow mortality during the first growing season <br />merits particular attention because strong year-classes <br />of juveniles (30-70-mm TL) are thought responsible <br />for subsequent strong year-classes of adults in the <br />Colorado and Green rivers (Osmundson and Burnham <br />1998; Bestgen et al. 2005). <br />The purpose of this investigation was to enhance <br />understanding of factors that control the recruitment <br />dyuamics of young Colorado pikeminnow in their first <br />summer of life. We first conducted small-scale exper- <br />iments to evaluate effectiveness of nonnative red shiners <br />as a predator on Colorado pikeminnow larvae. Red <br />shiners were used because they are abundant, preda- <br />ceous on cypriniform larvae (Ruppert et al. 1993), and <br />their abundance can be affected by mechanical removal <br />or high stream flows (Haines and Tyus 1990; Tyus and <br />Saunders 2000). Second, we examined large-scale <br />patterns of growth and recruitment of early life stages <br />of wild Colorado pikeminnow in the Green River by <br />analysis of daily increment patterns in otoliths (pannella <br />1971; Campana and Neilson 1985; Bestgen and Bundy <br />1998; Bundy and Bestgen 2(01). Intra-annual patterns <br />of growth and survival of cohorts of larvae were then <br />related to time of hatching and environmental events <br />that may influence recruitment (Methot 1983; Crecco <br />and Savoy 1985; Post and Prankevicius 1987; Rice et al. <br />1987; Limburg 1996; Mion et al. 1998; Garvey et al. <br />2002). Third, we developed an individual-based simu- <br />lation model (lBM) that integrated results of experi- <br />ments, field studies, and environmental variables and <br />used it to explore potential mechanisms for growth and <br />recruitment patterns observed in wild populations of <br />age-O Colorado pikeminnow through their first summer. <br />We also used mM simulations to predict recruitment <br />patterns of Colorado pikeminnow under hypothetical <br />management actions (e.g., predator reductions, water <br />temperature changes), and compared simulation predic- <br />tions to patterns observed for wild populations to test <br />model generality. Synthesis of these investigations <br />allowed us to evaluate relative effects of various <br />physical and biological factors on growth and survival <br />of early life stages of Colorado pikeminnow. <br /> <br />Colorado Pikeminnow Natural History <br />The Colorado pikeminnow has a complex life <br />history depicted in a conceptual model that links <br />developmental stages with some important biotic and <br />abiotic controlling factors (Figure 1; Bestgen et al. <br />1997). Large-bodied adult Colorado pikeminnow <br />(>450 mm TL) in the Green River basin of Colorado <br />and Utah migrate to two spawning areas in spring <br />