Laserfiche WebLink
<br />Further deduction may serve to an extent in these research areas, but a <br />point will come where the method of inference must change. Rather than con- <br />tinuing blindly with activities and data gathering because these are accepted <br />standard procedures, the scientist must stop and ask "just what the question <br />is, and what all the alternatives are" (Platt, 1964). And what's new about <br />this? Nothing, for the concept extends back to Francis Bacon, and he, in <br />fact, confesses borrowing it from Plato. We were taught in college to use our <br />imaginations, devise multiple alternative hypotheses, design experiments to <br />try and disprove them, and carry out the experiments with precise techniques. <br />But today we seem to have lost sight of the techniques. Platt (1964) pointed <br />out a major pitfall in biological research and suggested a way to avoid it <br />when he stated that, "biology with its vast informational detail and complex- <br />ity, is a 'high-information' field, where years and decades can easily be <br />wasted on the usual type of 'low-information' observations or experiments if <br />one does not think carefully in advance about what the most important and con- <br />clusive experiments would be." This advice is highly relevant to research in <br />fish and wildlife and, if heeded, could eliminate the all too common practice <br />in research of groping our way through broad and multiple relationships <br />toward generalized conclusions. <br /> <br />The northern pike spawning marsh example illustrates the place of induc- <br />tive inference by footnotes 1/, 2/, 3/, 4/. These need further imaginative <br />development. First, the options-must be-examined critically for omissions. <br />Second, each must be ranked in the light of knowledge, experience, and intui- <br />tion for its timeliness, impact on the basic problem, and adaptability to <br />experimentation so that the most important and potentially conclusive experi- <br />ments may be done first. Third, alternative hypotheses must be devised and <br />sharply focused at a crucial option. Fourth, experiments must be designed <br />and carried out for possible alternative outcomes, aimed at excluding hypoth- <br />eses. With a large number of options and variables, experiments designed for <br />multiple exclusion are expedient, but more important are decisive results. <br /> <br />PLANNING CONSIDERATIONS <br /> <br />Aren't we really only trying anything that comes <br />to mind? Put enough money into it and it will work. <br />(Regier, 1968) <br /> <br />This paper illustrates two forms of the spawning marsh plan. The <br />centerfold display is graphic while that in the Appendix is typed. The <br />typed form is sufficient and convenient for short plans of uncomplicated <br />problems, and it may serve as a convenient record for filing. The graphic <br />form is the more convenient for involved plans, and initial construction of <br />step-down plans is facilitated by the graphic form using cork board or a <br />wall area. <br /> <br />The importance of planning for problem solving has been emphasized. <br />There are four other uses and advantages of the graphic form of the step-down <br />plan. First, planning should be a team effort. This form is convenient for <br />review and comment by associates and other competent professionals. Second, <br />it is convenient and understandable for administrative review. Frequently <br /> <br />11 <br />