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<br />, <br /> <br />All relationships between runoff and precipitation are nearly linear for the range of scenarios <br /> <br />studied (Figure 3), with the exception of the T +4' C scenarios on the East River. In this case, runoff <br /> <br />increases more slowly than precipitation. Model biases undoubtedly affect this relationship. Percent <br /> <br />changes in runoff are dominated by low-flow years, which are generally underpredicted; thus percent <br /> <br />increases in runoff are probably underestimated and percent decreases are overestimated. If this is in fact <br /> <br />the case, the actual relationship is somewhat curvilinear and concave up, and runoff is still more sensitive <br /> <br />to increases in precipitation than these results indicate. <br /> <br />Annual flows are normally distributed in the Two-elevation and East River models and <br /> <br />approximately log-normally distributed in the White and Animas River models. In all cases, the climate <br /> <br />I I I I <br />-20 -10 0 10 20 <br />Percent Change in Precipitation <br /> <br />Figure 3: Change in runoff as a function of change in precipitation for the White River model. <br />The relationship is nearly linear for the range of hypothetical scenarios modeled here. <br /> <br /> 30 <br /> 20 <br />..... <br />..... <br />0 <br />c 10 <br />::J <br />a: <br />c <br />..-i 0 <br />C\) <br />0> <br />C <br />ra <br />.r::::. -10 <br />u <br />.... <br />c <br />C\) <br />u -20 <br />c... <br />C\) <br />Q. <br /> -30 <br /> <br />White River at Meeker <br /> <br />18.6 <br /> <br />- - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - <br /> <br /> <br />12.2 <br /> <br />-22.9 <br /> <br />o T+2 C <br />l;. T+4 C <br /> <br />-40 <br /> <br /> <br />I <br />30 <br /> <br />-30 <br /> <br />26 <br />