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WATER YEAR 2002 PROJECTIONS AND EA RELEASE PRIORITIES <br />Water Year 2002 Projected Water Supply <br />The Districts provided the following predictions for SNI and Type-of-Year for the 2002 water <br />year to the EA Manager on October 15, 2001. <br />Item <br />SNI, October through March <br />S1VI, October through April <br />Type-of-Year <br />Prediction <br />435,000 af <br />500,000 af <br />Dry <br />The Type-of-Year is based on the predicted SNI (435,000 afl and Lake McConaughy carryover <br />contents on October 1, 2001 (900,200 afl, in accordance with Section III of the EA Document. If <br />the predictions hold true and no reservoir fill occurs, EA content by the end of the non-irrigation <br />season will be about 76,000 af (i.e., 10% SNI + Carry-Over - Evap./Seep. or SOK + 28K - 2K = <br />76K). <br />Projected flows at Grand Island for the 2002 water year were compared to the Service's average <br />and dry target flow recommendations (Figure 3, page 15). Projected shortages to average and dry <br />target flow periods were calculated and are delineated below by Service flow target period and by <br />shortage time period. Because the Service's pulse flow recommendations are more complex and <br />designed to capture natural variability, they were not used in the determination of potential <br />shortages. <br />Table 3. Shortages Based on Districts' WY 2002 Projected Operations (Dry Year <br />Prediction) by Service Avera e and D IFR Periods <br /> Avg. IFR Drv IFR <br />IFR Period Shortaee Shortaee <br /> ka (ka1 <br /> t? y 1?' <br />t <br />?,Nov 0 <br /> <br /> ?.',4?? <br /> 0 <br /> <br /> <br />? 7 ' ,. t', <br />lt}`FB4!; <br />0 <br />f <br />Max,???Sh? ?? •? ? a103;.4? f ???,?,:?2 3? , <br />Mar. 16 - Mar. 22 2.08 0 <br />° Mar„23 ??4,r <br />r <br /> <br /> <br /> ;176.0?? <br /> <br /> Q??..C? <br />0 <br />4 <br />'J ?:?' <br />?' <br /> . <br />, <br />y-, .y.. <br />Total 556.66 239.01 <br />Water Year 2002 EA AOP 5 January 7, 2002