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DRAFT Preliminary Water Demand Forecasts
<br />Table 1 Population Projections by Basin
<br />
<br />Basin
<br />Arkansas
<br />000
<br />835,130
<br />2030
<br />1,292,985 •.. .
<br />2000-2030
<br />457,855 .-
<br />2000-2030
<br />55% Annual Growth
<br />Rate
<br />1.5%
<br />Colorado 248,034 492,556 244,522 99% 2.3%
<br />San Juan / Dolores /
<br />San Mi uel 90,893 171,641 80,748 89% 2.1 %
<br />Gunnison 88,603 161,495 72,892 82% 2.0%
<br />North Platte 1,586 1,986 400 25% 0.8%
<br />Rio Grande 46,435 62,748 16,313 35% 1.0%
<br />South Platte 2,985,586 4,911,601 1,926,015 65°/a 1.7%
<br />Yam a/ White / G reen 39,273 61,410 22,137 56% 1.5%
<br />Total 4,335,540 7,156,422 2,820,882 65% 1.7%
<br />Source: Colorado Department of Local Affairs Demography Section
<br />Current and Future M&I Water Demand
<br />?
<br />The CWCB Drought and Water Supply Assessment was used as a starting point for
<br />data collection on M&I demands throughout the state. It was necessary to supplement
<br />these data with an additional follow-up survey by CDM to collect additional water
<br />demand information, service area population, and to supplement the number of water
<br />providers. These data were used to estimate an average per capita water use rate for
<br />each county. These per capita use rates are multiplied by the projected population of •
<br />each county to estimate current and future M&I water demand (i.e., the residential,
<br />commercial, and industrial water use) of each county. This estimation of county per
<br />capita water use assumes that all residences, businesses, and industries throughout
<br />the county (including most self-supplied users) use water at the same rate as the
<br />provider-supplied residences, businesses, and industries as represented in the sample
<br />database. Per capita use rates vary over a wide range and are influenced by the type
<br />of residential housing, lawn size, climate, commercial and industrial use, and
<br />especially by tourism, which population is not included in the census and population
<br />projections.
<br />Where data were available regarding unique large self-supplied water users in
<br />specific counties, these self-supplied water uses were added to the M&I water
<br />demand estimate after per capita use was estimated. Where specific data were not
<br />available from the Drought and Water Supply Assessment or published reports,
<br />estimates were made of self-supplied uses. Power generating facilities that receive
<br />large raw water deliveries from other sources have been included in the self-supplied
<br />category.
<br />The water demand forecasts represent the baseline forecast for the Statewide Water
<br />Supply Initiative. This baseline forecast will serve as the basis of alternative water
<br />demand scenarios that incorporate alternative demographic growth assumptions and
<br />the impact of future water conservation efforts.
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