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<br />1 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />1 <br />1 <br />f <br />1 <br />1 <br />1 <br />B. Region of Analysis <br />The San Juan River flows through four counties: Montezuma County in Colorado, Rio Arriba <br />and San Juan counties in New Mexico, and San Juan county in Utah. Although the San Juan <br />does not flow through Apache, Coconino, and Navajo counties in Arizona and McKinley county <br />in New Mexico, these counties contain significant portions of the Navajo reservation, so they are <br />included in the analysis. Similarly, Archuleta and La Plata counties in Colorado are home to the <br />Ute Mountain Ute and Southern Ute Reservations and are included to allow identification of the <br />impacts to the tribal economies. <br />The ten county region constitutes a well-defined regional economy. The economy of the region <br />relies heavily on agriculture, extractive industries, government services, and tourism. There is <br />increasing reliance on service-oriented sectors in the growing cities of Cortez, Durango, <br />Farmington, Gallup, and Flagstaff. The counties are relatively homogeneous with respect to their <br />physical, social, and economic characteristics. The presence of the four Native American <br />reservations lends an administrative coherence to the area.' <br />C. Time Period <br />The time period selected for the study extends from 1995 through 2040. This time period is <br />based on several factors: the biological projections for the recovery of the fishes, the availability <br />of reliable data to project the level of economic development in the region and model the <br />economic impacts, and the recognition of the diminution of impacts occurring distant into the <br />future due to discounting. The initial impacts of listing and critical habitat are projected to <br />appear in 1999, and the recovery of the fishes is expected to be complete by 2020. Thus, a time <br />t <br />' Although the regional economy has linkages with the larger state and national economies, the purpose of this <br />' study is to focus specifically on the regional and tribal effects of critical habitat designation. Thus, only regional <br />economic effects will be reported. State and national economic projections are reported in Brookshire et al., 1994. <br />1 <br />2 <br />