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CHAPTER 1 Outdoor Recreation: Flistorical and Anticipated Trends Curtis H. Flather and H. Ken Cordell One attribute common to the diverse array of outdoor recreational pursuits is the need for a spacious land- or water-base (Clawson and Harrington 1991). The fact that outdoor recreation is dispersed over large areas has undoubtedly contributed to the perception that it has little environmental impact com- pared to extractive uses of natural resources such as timber harvesting or live- stock grazing. Some have concluded that outdoor recreation is benign, or at worst neutral, in its environmental consequences (see Wilkes 1977; Duffus and Dearden 1990). Recreational Influences Given the growing number of outdoor recreationists, and an emerging dispo- sition among some public land management agencies to shift their emphasis from commodity to amenity uses (Brown and Harris 1992), the notion that recreation has no environmental impacts is no longer tenable. Recreationists often degrade the land, water, and wildlife resources that support their activi- ties by sixnplifyingplant communities, increasing animal mortality, displacing and disturbing wildlife, and distributing refuse (Boyle and Samson 1985). These impacts can be particularly extensive for the very reason that many out- doorrecreational impacts were initially thought to bediluted-namely, recre- ationists are dispersed over large areas (Cole and Knight 1991). Management strategies for regulating recreational impacts on wildlife often involve restricting access to public lands, and, proactive management would benefit from an analysis of historical and anticipated trends in outdoor recreation. In this chapter we review these trends for outdoor recreation in the