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26 The Mediation Process <br />to manage intense anger, bluffing, bargaining in bad faith, mis- <br />trust, or miscommunication are all in this category of specific <br />interventions. While some contingent moves, such as the caucus- <br />private meetings between the parties and the mediators-are <br />quite common, they are still in the contingent category because <br />they do not happen in all negotiations. <br />Hypothesis Building and Mediation Interventions <br />For a mediator to be effective, he or she needs to be able <br />to analyze and assess critical situations and design effective in- <br />terventions to counteract the causes of the conflict. Conflicts, <br />however, do not come in neat packages with their causes and <br />component parts labeled so that the parties, or the intervenor, <br />know how to creatively respond to them. The causes are often <br />obscured and clouded by the dynamics of the interaction. <br />To work effectively on conflicts, the intervenor needs a <br />conceptual road map or "conflict map" of the dispute (Wehr, <br />1979) that should detail why a conflict is occurring, should <br />identify barriers to settlement, and should indicate procedures <br />to manage or resolve the dispute. <br />Most conflicts have multiple causes; usually it is a combi- <br />nation of problems in the relations of the disputants that leads <br />to a dispute. The principal tasks of the mediator and the parties <br />are to identify central causes of the conflict and take action to <br />alleviate them. The mediator and participants in a dispute ac- <br />complish this by trial-and-error experimentation in which they <br />generate and test hypotheses about the conflict. <br />First, the parties and the mediator observe the aspects of <br />the dispute. They examine attitudinal or behavioral problems in <br />the interactions of the disputants, disagreements over "facts," <br />compatible and competing interests, interaction dynamics, <br />power relations, and value similarities and differences. From the <br />observations, the mediator tries to identify the central critical <br />situations or causes of the dispute. He or she often uses a frame- <br />work of explanatory causes and suggested interventions such as <br />those identified in Figure 2. Once the mediator believes that a <br />central cause has been identified, he or she builds a hypothesis. <br />