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quantified effect on Compact development. The State of Colorado should be given the <br />opportunity to analyze model runs from a Compact development standpoint as soon as possible. <br />Summary <br />The model results show that NPS desired flows can partially be met; however, none of the model <br />runs completely meet the desired flows. Sufficient time has not been available to review the <br />factors that determine this; however, operational criteria entered in the model and existing <br />physical outlet capacities at all three dams play a significant part. One example is the winter <br />elevation target at Blue Mesa, established by prior Reclamation studies, which often prevents <br />lowering releases to the 300 cfs minimum that would save water for a spring peak. This <br />operational criteria is very important in preventing upstream ice flooding in Gunnison County. <br />Another factor is criteria for Blue Mesa Reservoir that protect downstream areas from flooding. <br />Impacts on Aspinall Unit purposes such as hydropower, downstream flood protection, recreation, <br />and fish and wildlife would occur under the NPS desired flows and are summarized below. It <br />must be noted that these impacts result from model runs that only partially meet the NPS desired <br />flow goals; in most cases, fully meeting the goals could increase impacts. <br />Hydropower - Impacts to hydropower generation at the Aspinall Unit were analyzed for the seven <br />model runs. For each model run, impacts in a typical dry year, wet year and average year were <br />studied. Replacement energy costs for NPS desired flows range from $5.3 million in an average <br />year to $11.6 million in a wet year. Other cost factors, such as volatility of the power market and <br />loss of peaking power revenues at Morrow Point and Blue Mesa during spill periods, have not <br />been included in the analysis at this time. The Aspinall Unit's ability to provide emergency <br />response during power system emergencies would be reduced. <br />Operation and Maintenance - Costs and scheduling of operation and maintenance activities <br />would increase due to more frequent use of bypass valves, spillway gates, spillways, and stilling <br />basins. Additional costs for modifications would be incurred in order to ensure this equipment <br />and these structures meet engineering requirements. This higher and more frequent use would <br />also result in periods of time where river flows would be interrupted in order to adequately <br />inspect and maintain the structures. <br />Fish and Wildlife - At Blue Mesa Reservoir, any change in the reservoir operation can affect loss <br />of fish through reservoir outlets, the thermal regime of the reservoir, and the overall reservoir <br />productivity. It appears summer reservoir levels would decrease by an average of 2 to 3 feet <br />under NPS desired flows, having a negative, but not quantified, effect on reservoir fisheries. <br />In the Gunnison River below Crystal Dam, May peaks, with appropriate ramping, should not be <br />detrimental to the trout fishery. The June peaks have more potential for damaging rainbow trout <br />recruitment. NPS desired flows would increase the number of days flows are reduced to the <br />minimum of 300 cfs from roughly 800 to 1,600 days during the 24-year study period (or from an <br />average of 33 days per year to 66 days), thus having an adverse effect on the trout fishery. <br />14