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<br />Analysis during the initial study was conducted to gain an understanding of the potential <br />magnitude of contribution to peak flows that might be attainable through CROS efforts and to <br />identify the types of water years where contributions by coordinated releases might be <br />significant. Characteristic years were identified in the period of 1984 to 1994. It was found that <br />during dry years, reservoirs would be operating strictly to meet existing demands and would <br />have little, if any, discretionary water available. <br />Further analyses were conducted for water years 1993 and 1994, which bracket the 'average' year <br />of 1991 and represent the types of years in which discretionary releases may be able to be made <br />and provide some benefit to peak flows. The analyses indicate that even the hypothetical removal <br />of the total effects of existing transmountain diversions and reservoirs, which is not contemplated <br />by the RIP, would not produce major increases in the peak spring flows. This is of particular <br />concern as the operational modifications considered under this study are only a small fraction of <br />1 the total effects of present reservoir operations. Additionally, since discretionary releases <br />represent a shifting of timing of releases from a reservoir and not an increase in overall volume <br />released, there are seasonal tradeoffs to making the releases. <br />The study team requested that the Program extend previous research into the flow effects upon <br />habitat formation. Dr. John Pitlick of the University of Colorado found that certain velocities <br />must be surpassed and sustained to cause channel formation in the gravel beds of the Reach. <br />There are several non-fluvial factors that impede channel formation, particularly levees, riprap, <br />and vegetative growth. If the flow increases due to coordinated reservoir operations are only a <br />small percentage of the overall Colorado River flow during peak runoff, critical flow velocities <br />for channel formation may not be obtained, or there may only be a marginal impact on channel <br />formation. Dr. Pitlick is conducting further research into the flow effects upon silt movement, <br />and it is possible that greater benefits may be attainable by targeting discretionary releases <br />toward silt movement. <br />The team analyzed historic climatological trends due to a concern that the 15-Mile Reach flow <br />recommendations may have included data from a wetter period of record than is currently being <br />experienced in the Colorado River Basin. The results indicate that up to half of the decreases in <br />some mean monthly flows may be due to climatological changes during the past 90 years. Some <br />of the flow recommendations are greater than 'virgin' flows, with all effects of development <br />removed, for the recent drier period of 1954 to 1989. <br />The study team simulated potential discretionary releases that might have been made in past <br />years had the reservoirs been operated to enhance peaks. This analysis was being conducted with <br />1 very broad, simplifying assumptions. Initial indications were that there is some ability to enhance <br />peak flows through coordinated discretionary releases though it is possible they should be aimed <br />at cleaning out silts to improve habitat in the Reach. The U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service has also <br />identified a range of peak flows outside of which it may be more beneficial to target releases at <br />augmenting low flows during non-peak times ("Relationships Between Flow and Rare Fish <br />Habitat in the '15 Mile Reach' of the Colorado River", U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service 1995). The <br />conclusion of the feasibility study was that reservoirs should seek to bypass inflows during the <br />peak, but only if bypasses would result in peaks greater than 12,900 cfs without exceeding the <br />National Weather Service flood level of 26,600 cfs. This range is based on the the need for <br />sediment flushing from the interstitial voids in the river channel for better survival of fish eggs <br />and invertebrates (food source for the fish). <br />4