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A prime example of the "illusion of technique" is the very popular incremental <br />method (IFIM) that is recommended by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to determine <br />minimum flows to protect fisheries from the effects of stream regulation. The method is <br />based on field surveys that determine the area of the varial zone that is inundated at <br />different instream volumes (i.e., wetted usable area, WUA), along with other physical <br />habitat components (e.g., velocities). These data are then used to drive a sophisticated <br />simulation model involving target species and different flow scenarios to determine <br />minimum flows required to sustain fisheries (Nestler et al. 1989). The model actually <br />does nothing more than predict physical habitat availability for various life stages of <br />specific fishes and in some cases it does not appear to do that very well, among other <br />problems (Mathur et al. 1985, Orth and Maughan 1982, Scott and Shrivell 1987, <br />Shirvell 1989, Gan and McMahon 1990). However, the IFIM clearly is a refined and <br />standardized technique and its use has in some instances prevented chronic <br />dewatering of rivers. Our point is that this and other models are not responsive to <br />processes that ultimately determine variability of bioproduction and other important <br />aspects of ecosystem connectivity (Figures 4 and 5). In spite of warnings to the <br />contrary by the authors of IFIM (and other standardized approaches), the illusion for <br />naive users in this case is that WUA is deterministic, when in fact complex interactions <br />of abiotic and biotic components comprising a river are naturally stochastic. This of <br />course is precisely why the ecosystem exists in a quasi-equilibrium state. Naive <br />managers and administrators easily confuse quantification, objectivity and <br />sophistication with biological reality and such illusions should not be fostered (R. <br />Behnke, Colorado State University, unpublished). <br />A more rationale approach is to recognize and appreciate the complexities of <br />river catchments and utilize standardized tools and models in the limited sense for <br />which they were designed. No model or other deterministic construct likely will ever <br />accurately predict ecosystem structure and function at the catchment scale. But, model <br />building is one very effective way to better plan and articulate the need for collection of <br />long-term ecological data that will ultimately explain observed variability caused by <br />natural and human disturbances. In almost all assessments of cumulative impacts at <br />the catchment level, long-term empirical data describing ecosystem structure and <br />function are required as baselines to firmly quantify environmental change. <br />22