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<br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />Lower Basin Reservoirs <br /> <br />Water shall be released or pumped from Lake Mead to meet the following requirements: <br /> <br />(a) 1944 Mexican Water Treaty obligations; <br />(b) Reasonable beneficial consumptive use requirements of mainstream users in <br />the Lower Division States; <br />(c) Net river losses; <br />(d) Net reservoir losses; <br />"(e) Regulatory wastes. <br /> <br />The Operating Criteria provide that after the commencement of delivery of mainstream water" <br />by means of the CAP, the Secretary of the Interior will detennine the extent to which the <br />reasonable beneficial consumptive use requirement of mainstream users in the Lower <br />Division States is met. The reasonable beneficial consumptive use requirements are met <br />depending on whether a nonnal, surplus. or shortage condition has been determined. The <br />normal condition is defined as annual pumping and release from Lake Mead sufficient to <br />satisfy 9,251 MCM (7.500 MAP) of consumptive use in accordance with Article m(3)(a) of <br />the Operating Criteria and Article ll(B)(I) of the U.S. Supreme Court decree in Arizona ~ <br />California. The surplus condition is defined as annual pumping and release from Lake Mead <br />sufficient to satisfy in excess of 9,25 1 MCM (7,500 MAP) of consumptive use in accordance <br />with Article m(3)(b) of the Operating Criteria and Article ll(B)(2) of the U.S. Supreme <br />Court decree in Arizona V. California. <br /> <br />While there is no agreed-upon surplus strategy. the most conservative strategy investigated in <br />preparing the 1997 AOP concerned the utilization of additional water in reservoir storage <br />resulting in the avoidance offload control releases at the 30 percent exceedance probability <br />of inflow to Lake Powell. This and other strategies seek to decrease the risk of flood control <br />releases from Hoover Dam, which allows increased beneficial use of water in the United <br />States. Possible impacts of a 1997 surplus determination were evaluated in terms of effects <br />on reservoir elevations and releases and increased risk of future shortages. This analysis <br />showed that the 1997 surplus determination will cause neither significant effects on reservoir <br />contents in Lakes Powell and Mead nor significant additional risk of future shortages in <br />Arizona. <br /> <br />The amount of additional mainstream water being made available during calendar year 1997 <br />is limited to that quantity required to satisfy the reasonable beneficial consumptive use <br />requirements of Colorado River mainstream water users in the Lower Division States with <br />valid contracts or Federal or decreed entitlements. The making of this determination does not <br />preclude the SecretaI)' from adopting other determination criteria in future years. <br />Furthermore neither this determination nor the basis on which it was made constitutes a <br />, <br /> <br />precedent for future detenninations. <br /> <br />Taking into account (I) the existing water storage conditions in the basin, (2) the most <br />probable near-term water supply conditions in the basin, and (3) that the benefi~al <br /> <br />15 <br />