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<br />, . <br /> <br />Upstream flooding due to ice jams above Blue Mesa would not be affected by any of the model runs <br />because the same criteria was used in all model runs to meet the winter target reservoir elevation that <br />reduces ice jams. If this criteria were changed to assist in meeting flow recommendations, ice flooding <br />could increase. <br /> <br />Compact Entitlement <br /> <br />The State of Colorado is entitled to waters from the Colorado River and its tributaries based on several <br />compacts, including the 1922 Colorado River Compact and the 1948 Upper Colorado River Basin <br />Compact. The State of Colorado estimates that at least 450,000 acre-feet of undeveloped water remains <br />of their Compact entitlement. As noted earlier, one of the purposes of the Aspinall Unit is to allow <br />Colorado to use its apportionment of water under the compacts. The Gunnison River, as one of the <br />largest tributaries to the Colorado River, is a strong potential source for this future water development. <br />Blue Mesa Reservoir holds one of the State of Colorado's largest uncommitted water supplies. <br /> <br />In general, model runs that reduce the frequency of filling Blue Mesa would reduce the potential for <br />Colorado to develop water supplies. In dry water years, operating to meet the flow recommendations <br />could result in Blue Mesa releasing up to 150,000 to 200,000 acre-feet of storage water more than the <br />Baseline Run. The effect of the flow recommendations on future Colorado water uses has not been <br />analyzed. <br /> <br />Relationship with the Black Canyon Reserved Water Right <br /> <br />The U.S. filed claims in 1971 for federal reserved water rights. In 1982, the Colorado Supreme Court <br />confirmed a decision by the Water Court granting the U.S. an unquantified federal reserved water right <br />for instream flows in the Gunnison River for purposes of the Black Canyon of the Gunnison National <br />Monument. In January 2001, the United States filed an application to quantify the reserved right. <br /> <br />The NPS conducted studies in the Black Canyon on vegetation, stream organisms, recreation access, and <br />stream morphology to provide data for quantifying the reserved right. Reclamation's policy has been to <br />support quantification of the reserved water right while continuing to meet Congressionally authorized <br />purposes of the Aspinall Unit. The NPS desired flows call for a year-round minimum flow of300 cfs and <br />depending on hydrologic conditions, a spring peak in excess of 12,000 cfs with specific ramping rates, <br />and inundation flows4 between 300 and 3,350 cfs. NPS desired flows are measured at USGS gage, <br />(Gunnison River below Gunnison Tunnel), at the upper end of the Black Canyon of the Gunnison <br />National Park. <br /> <br />Both the endangered fish and NPS desired flows call for a high spring peak. In attempting to meet the <br />fish flow recommendations at Whitewater, the fish flow model runs (Runs B, C, and D) indicate the <br />desired NPS peak would be met or exceeded in only 1 of the 26 model years. These model runs also <br />indicate at least 90 percent of the NPS desired peak flows would be met in 4 years, and 75 percent of the <br />peak would be met in 6 years. In the model, these occur in dry, moderately dry, or average dry years. <br /> <br />4Inundation flows provide an 85-dayminimum flows between May 1 st and July 31 st to <br />protect NPS resources. <br /> <br />14 <br />