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<br />more than 100 years (Wiley et al. 1993). Considering the size or age class at which <br />most hatchery fish are released, the magnitude of mortality is especially great compared <br />to wild mortality rates (Maynard et al. 1995). Post-release survival rates for razorback <br />sucker released in the San Juan River have been roughly estimated as high as -25% <br />(F. Pfieffer, USFWS, pers. com.); however, these fish were grown to 400 mm. <br /> <br />Additionally, growing fish to 200 mm may take additional space, entail an additional <br />cost, and add an additional six months of growing time minimum (M. Ulibarri, DNFH & <br />TC, pers. com.). It is estimated that in order to grow humpback chub much beyond 150 <br />mm, more than a year will be needed. If fish are cultured on a yearly basis, it would be <br />optimal to free space in time for the arrival of new fish. An important factor that could <br />negate some of these concerns is that about half as many fish would need to be grown <br />to 200 mm as to 150 mm in order to accomplish the same objective; that is to increase <br />recruitment to sufficient levels. This holds at least three important implications. First, <br />collecting fewer fish and growing them to a larger size (200 mm) would result in less <br />annual cropping of the wild cohort. In addition, it may be preferable to annually release <br />a smaller number of cultivated fish into the wild. Second, it would be logistically easier <br />to collect fewer fish. It is unlikely that this would reduce hatchery space requirements or <br />costs, since growing fish to 200 mm will result in holding multiple cohorts on station. <br /> <br />In summary, we recommend that fish are grown out to a minimum of 150 mm for initial <br />efforts. If problems with survivorship rates upon release at this size appear to be <br />insurmountable in achieving augmentation, efforts may need to be taken to grow fish to <br />200 mm before release. Our rationale for recommending 150 mm is based on 1) a <br />need to PIT tag and monitor these fish once released, and 2) minimizing the chance for <br />hatchery mortality and domestication issues. <br /> <br />How many fish will need to be released into the wild to sufficiently supplement <br />the population of humpback chub in Grand Canyon? <br /> <br />We have investigated an Age Structured Mark-Recapture (ASMR) population model <br />(designed by C. Walters,UBC) for humpback chub. This model provides an estimate of <br />the number of fish that may be needed to arrest a continuing decline or to augment the <br />population of humpback chub in Grand Canyon via the use of supplemental stocking <br />using wild caught fish. The model can be set up using alternative assumptions about <br />wild survivorship rates. For example, the model can use the age at length and <br />estimated survival rates from ages 1 to 30 (partially shown in Table 1), and with the use <br />of historical data, run from 1989 to 2020. The model can operate by inputting the <br />number of aged fish that are stocked (e.g., ages-1, 2, 3, etc.) on top of the estimated <br />average wild recruitment between 1994 and 1999. Since the model uses annual age at <br />length data, it will not predict exactly how many humpback chub at 150 mm would need <br />to be stocked (i.e., it can only input the age specific lengths - for example age-3 fish at <br />171 mm). In this report, the model is not intended to provide a final definitive number; it <br />is dynamic and is subject to assumptions and future refinements that mayor may not be <br />considered necessary. The model accounts for removal of age-O fish from the wild <br />cohort (i.e., cropping), and assumes a 20% mortality rate in the captive phase (as based <br /> <br />28 <br />