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<br />\.. <br /> <br />changes for Scenario A and B respectively are $1.55 million and -$3.09 million. Overall national <br />efficiency impacts depend on whether the expansion in thermal generating capacity is a net <br />addition to the level of economic activity or is a simple transfer from other sectors in the national <br />economy. <br /> <br />VIII. Exclusion Process and Conclusion <br /> <br />The applied general equilibrium approach forces recognition of potential offsetting effects as <br />resources are reallocated to preserve critical habitat for endangered species. Thus, in the <br />Colorado River study, the flow changes required for the endangered fishes decreases agricultural <br />activity in the upper basin of the Colorado River but increases this activity in the lower basin. A <br />partial equilibrium analysis ignores such effects. Further, reallocating water uses causes some <br />activities to decline while others increase. The partial equilibrium analysis omits such effects. <br />The exclusion process utilizing the economic analyses for both the Colorado and Virgin studies <br />resulted in all of the proposed critical habitat being designated. No areas were excluded for <br />economic reasons. <br /> <br />The economic impacts associated with critical habitat designation arise from the required <br />resource reallocation. The impacts are typically regional, rather than local, and thus necessitate <br />regional economic modeling. The appropriate modeling framework must capture both the <br />aggregate and distributional consequences resulting from resource reallocation caused by the <br />designation of critical habitat. Applied general equilibrium models, either input-output (1-0) <br />models or computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, are suitable for these purposes. Partial <br />equilibrium models are inappropriate as they assume that resources not employed in the sectors <br />constrained by the critical habitat will simply cease to exist instead of being reallocated within <br />the regional economy. By the same token, focus on local impacts will obscure potentially <br />offsetting (or magnified) impacts at a regional level. Applied general equilibrium models <br />circumvent this problem by explicitly incorporating the resource reallocation within the regional <br />economy. <br /> <br />38 <br />