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during the First Increment. Monitoring activities will document trends in changes of parameters <br />of interest in relation to measured variables (covariates) that have the potential to impact those <br />trends. Research will necessarily be more limited in scope and scale but will provide an estimate <br />of cause and effect relationships between management actions and outcomes. Monitoring and <br />research information will be integrated to provide a weight of evidence supporting changes in <br />management. It will not only support changes, it will help identify what changes are needed and <br />provide information on the best means of modifying management actions. Information will be <br />gathered throughout the First Increment and will be used to improve management during the <br />First Increment and in decisions made at the end of the First Increment (e.g., increase or decrease <br />in land or water). <br />V.B. Monitoring Versus Research, and How They Must be Integrated <br />Following development of the CEM's and hypotheses, monitoring and research approaches may <br />be refined and changes may be made to protocol descriptions. Monitoring and research will be <br />linked to CEM's and hypotheses. The current list of hypotheses and protocols are cross <br />referenced in Table l. <br />V.11.1. Monitoring <br />Program monitoring is designed to provide unbiased estimates of population and habitat <br />parameters over space and time with high precision. Monitoring data will be used to estimate <br />status (e.g. mean, median, minimum, and maximum) and trend in the entire study area, and in <br />specific areas of interest within the study area (e.g., Program lands). In addition, both individual <br />(gross) and net trends are of interest. A statistical survey design has been employed to meet <br />these objectives. The design includes the establishment of survey panels, the revisit design (plan <br />for the timing of survey of panels), the membership design (rule for sample units' membership in <br />a panel), the definition of sample unit, and the enumeration of the sampling frame. <br />All monitoring and research will be conducted by following detailed and scientifically accepted <br />protocols. All identified system level monitoring protocols will be developed during the July 1997 <br />Cooperative Agreement period for implementation beginning Year 1 of the Program. Program <br />staff, or contractors under the supervision of Program staff, will develop additional monitoring <br />and research protocols as needed. All protocols will be subject to review by the Program's <br />Technical Advisory Committee and approval by the Governance Committee. Monitoring studies <br />are designed to address hypotheses by documenting trends in selected performance measures <br />related to biological response with statistical inference possible to the appropriate study areas. <br />Monitoring is defined as the collection and analysis of repeated observations or measurements <br />over a long period of time to document the status or trend in the parameters of interest. These <br />data will be used to test hypotheses by assessing such relationships as whether there is a non-zero <br />trend through time, or assessing whether or not there are spatial differences in indicators along <br />gradients of flow/habitat conditions. The Program's monitoring is focused on estimating trends <br />in species and habitat and therefore measures factors that directly relate to the condition/status of <br />the species or its habitat. The monitoring portion of the IMRP is designed to detect statistically <br />significant changes in measured parameters over time and document correlations between <br />management activities, other random variables, and those changes. <br />September 1, 2006 Adaptive ManagementPlan 28