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CRDSS_Task1_15-27_CalibrationOfMODSIMPrototype
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CRDSS_Task1_15-27_CalibrationOfMODSIMPrototype
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Last modified
9/26/2011 8:32:33 AM
Creation date
7/11/2008 12:46:29 PM
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Decision Support Systems
Title
CRDSS Task 1.15-27 - Water Rights Planning Model - Calibation of MODSIM Prototype
Description
The purpose of this task memorandum is to describe and document the procedures used to calibrate the MODSIM computer model developed as the prototype water rights planning model (WRPM) for the Gunnison River basin.
Decision Support - Doc Type
Task Memorandum
Date
1/9/1995
DSS Category
Surface Water
DSS
Colorado River
Basin
Colorado Mainstem
Gunnison
Contract/PO #
C153658, C153727, C153752
Grant Type
Non-Reimbursable
Bill Number
SB92-87, HB93-1273, SB94-029, HB95-1155, SB96-153, HB97-008
Prepared By
Riverside Technology inc.
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picking up lower costs of the Gunnison Tunnel's direct flow right and to ensure tha t <br />Ridgway storage is used first. <br />02-13-95 Changed irrigation efficiency for demand nodes in the Austin area from 0.3 0 <br />? <br />(GUNMOD) to 0.45 to be more consistent with the magnitude of the irrigate d <br />acreage and the historic diversions. <br />Modified the flow regime below Taylor Park Reservoir, reduc ing the monthly flow <br />? <br />requirements to be consistent with the GUNMOD calibration effort. <br />Performed additional review of the mode l to assure that MODSIM is accuratel y <br />? <br />representing the data and assumptions of GUNMOD e x c e p t where the assumption s <br />have been modified by the CRDSS team. <br />Adopted storage levels for Blue Mesa and Taylor Park from the GUNMOD <br />? <br />forecasts. Computed a complete time se ries of forecast end-o f-month target storag e <br />levels using the GUNMOD forecast module GUNFRCST. <br />All of these modifications were made to improve the calibration of the model with respect to replicating <br />actual historic administrative and operational conditions that are reflected in the historic stream gage <br />and diversion data. <br />Differences Between Baseline and Calibration Network Models <br />There are two baseline network models for the G unnison River prototype: the "Strict Administration <br />Model,? sadmin2.22, and the "good ne ighbor" protocol, gad min2.22. The former (sadmin2.22) reflects <br />strict administration of all decreed water right prioritie s, in particular the direct flow water rights of the <br />Uncompahgre project and the G unnison Tunnel. The second ne twork (gadmin2.22) reflects the <br />administration that has informally b een practiced in the basin, notably th at the direct flow rights of the <br />UVWUA are subordinated to other non-project water rights on the ma in stem of the Uncompahgre <br />River, and the direct flow right of the Gunnison Tunne l is subordinated to all j unior direct flow rights <br />on the main stem of the Gunnison Ri ver and is treated as senior only to the large storage right of Blue <br />Mesa Reservoir. For the subsequent calibration of the MODSIM model, the gadmin2.22 network was <br />used as the baseline condition. The final ca libration network, cal2.212, wa s obtained by making the <br />following modification to gadmin2.22: <br />? <br />Because of the one annual fill rule, the simulati on resulted in large swings in storage (modeled <br />versus historic). To correct for this, the carr yover storage provision was di sabled such that the <br />reservoirs could still fill in the spring months. In the MODSIM simulation, this was accomplished <br />by artificially increasing the storage right of Blue Mesa by 500,000 acre-feet and the storage right <br />of Taylor Park by 40,000 acre-feet. <br />Results of the Prototype Calibration <br />The results of the calibration process are evaluate d by comparing the simulation results from the model <br />runs at the defined calibration point s to the historic data at those locations. This is accomplished by <br />analyzing tabular comparisons a nd graphical plots of the monthly flows betw een historical and <br />simulated conditions over the 11-year period (1970 through 1980). These tables and graphical <br />comparisons are attached in Appendices A and B. <br />5 <br />A275 02.23.94 1.15-27 Fosha, Ritsch <br />
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