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In attempting to foresee the spring conditions in the Districts /entire Division one <br />should cross check both variables to assess the range of possibilities with respect to the <br />current conditions. The reasoning for this is that the `wet' scenarios mentioned above <br />still portray a bit of `scatter' or uncertainty as a number of El Nino years in the area still <br />resulted in fairly dry years. A good example that was not included in this particular <br />analysis dataset was the recently completed 2007 Water Year where El Nino conditions <br />were firmly established but, precipitation was generally less than normal in the District. <br />See Figure 12 for an example. <br />Figure 12. Relationship of the Jan -Mar. SOI vs. District 34 Apr. -Jun. Basin Avg. Precip. <br />(% of normal) <br />Jan -Mar 5dl vs. April-June Precipitation for District 34 <br />(% of normal) <br />PDO <br />a <br />SOI <br />Nino 3.4 <br />NAO <br />AMO <br />District 30 <br />X <br />.cti. <br />.... <br />X <br />District 32 <br />X <br />X <br />X <br />.e <br />X <br />X <br />♦ e <br />a <br />X <br />District 71 <br />a <br />X <br />X <br />A. <br />♦ ♦ ♦ <br />♦ +♦ <br />w <br />I <br />-7.00 -6.00 -5.00 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.000 <br />Jan -Mar SOI Value <br />Table 5. Summary of single season Apr. -Jun. Precipitation/HCI Relationships for the San <br />Juan/Dolores basin (dark `X' indicates a relatively strong relationship and light 'X' indicates a <br />relatively weak relationship). <br />20 <br />PDO <br />MEI <br />SOI <br />Nino 3.4 <br />NAO <br />AMO <br />District 30 <br />X <br />X <br />X <br />District 32 <br />X <br />X <br />X <br />District 34 <br />X <br />X <br />X <br />District 71 <br />X <br />X <br />X <br />20 <br />