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<br />Mr. Henz also believes that we need to find a way to anticipate when we will see that six-month wet winter. He also <br />would like us to answer the question, "Can we have a multi year El Nino?" We need to study El Nino and we need <br />good numbers and decision-making tools and research meteorologists haven't given us those answers yet. <br /> <br />Significant flood years were in 1904, 1935, 1965, and 1977, These were on the tail end oflong drought periods, It <br />could happen in the next year or two, HDR Engineering has been working on the Flood Study on South Boulder Creek <br />and studying the meteorology of severe storms, He found that a hurricane in Caribbean came up the eastern spine of <br />the Rockies in September of 1938, In September 1938 a 2,9 inch rain wiped out Morrison, El Dorado Springs got it as <br />well. A nine or ten inch storm in WaterDale (east of Fort Collins) was significant as well. He thinks we should look at <br />the Bill Gray hurricane forecasts that we are going to see this late in the fall. <br /> <br />Frank McNulty stated that when we use the last 100 years of data perhaps what we have is not that new, The question <br />is how do we deal with it, co mingle climate with water supply issues, the question is how do we deal with the water <br />supply issues, <br /> <br />NRCS Snow Survey - Mike Gillespie <br />The graph shows the May 1 st snow pack and we had just came out of wet April. The snow pack in lower south central <br />was above normal. May was a dry month, 37% of average at SNOTEL sites in the states for that month, The <br />southwest was the driest for that period, June 1 st snow pack rapidly began to melt out. The snow pack is melting out <br />earlier than in 2001 and 2003 but not as early as 2002, Reservoir storage is 85% of average statewide, the Gunnison is <br />109% of average, Rio Grande and Arkansas Basins are very low, Southwest basins are 98% of normal reservoir <br />storage and that may be from the early snow-melt out. The trend is a slow gradual recovery from drought and it is not <br />a good idea to make a forecast early in the year <br /> <br /> <br />Reservoir Storage <br />June 1, 2004 <br /> <br />Statewide: 85% ot Average <br />125% of Last Year <br /> <br /> <br />Streamflow Forecasts <br />June 1,2004 <br /> <br />Natural Rl'5lJouIU'5 <br />Conservation S.ervice <br /> <br />Legend <br /> <br />.~150'%ofAverage <br />D130-150%OfA\lerage <br />D110-129%OfA\lerage <br />D90-109%ofAVerage <br />.70 - 89% or AI/Brage <br /> <br />.50-69%ofAllerage <br /> <br />.~50%ofA\lerage <br />DNotForecast <br />""",,M ajar Basin BoundGir1 <br />~WatershedBoundar~ <br /> <br />~ N Res <br /> <br />Snowpack <br />May t 2004 <br /> <br />Natural Resources <br />Cons"",.tion S,rvice <br /> <br /> <br />Legend <br />. ' 150% of Average <br />D 130,150% of Average <br />D 110,129%ofAverage <br />D 90,109% of Average <br />D 70,89% of Average <br />. 50,69% of Average <br />. --: 50% of Average <br />D NotSwveyed <br />~ Major Basin Boundary <br />'\ Watershed Boundary <br /> <br />~. <br />Statewide: 68% of Average <br /> <br />Snowpack <br />June 1,2004 <br /> <br />~NRCS <br /> <br /> <br />Natural Re5ource5 <br />Conservation 'Service <br /> <br />Legend <br />. > 150%ofA.....erage <br />D 130 -150% of Average <br />D 110-129%ofAverage <br />D 90, 109% of Average <br />D70-89%OfAVerage <br />.50-69%OfAVerage <br />. -=:50%ofAverage <br />DNotSur..reved <br />"-'"-." Major Basin Boundary <br />~WatershedB(lJndarv <br /> <br />~. <br />Statewide: 23% of Average <br />69% of Last Year <br /> <br />3 <br />