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<br />of opportunity, The invasion of Europe to start WWII hinged on his weather forecast. Mr. Lundahl used this <br />historical example to illustrate the importance of weather forecasting in water manager activities, <br /> <br />NOAA-National Weather Service (Boulder) - Treste Huse (Senior hydrologist) <br />Ms, Huse showed satellite image from the morning, She observed that the fire danger class has more fire danger now, <br />Its better than 2002 but recent warm weather has Colorado getting to more dangerous levels, Currently there is a <br />trough over the west coast. We could get some thunderstorms out of this system, We will get a cold front moving <br />through with light a drizzle, This is more like an April or May pattern not so much in June, This meant that we are <br />getting the jet stream a little further south and that should produce some increased moisture in Colorado, There is a <br />fairly active pattern with a low-pressure trough, We could see a Denver cyclone and thunderstorms over the Palmer <br />Divide on Thursday and in the Front Range and Denver Metro Area, Friday afternoon a second cold front moves <br />through with cooler temperatures and cold air coming down, We could get some gulf moisture in the beginning of <br />July, The best precipitation will be on the eastern slopes and eastern plains next week. <br /> <br />Summer Precipitation Outlook HDR Engineering - John Henz <br />John Henz mentioned a recent instability in the weather. During the last ten years he has work with the Flood Task <br />Force, He is tasked to speculate what will happen in the summer. In Leena Gulch just south of Golden, Colorado we <br />had 2,5 inches in a just 30 minutes that <br />equates to rain rates a 5 inches per hour. <br />There are signs and messages in the <br />atmosphere of unstable weather patterns, We <br />are living in interesting times, searching for <br />water on Mars and finding it. Weare finding <br />and ozone holes on Saturn, Mr. Henz made <br />reference to a recent Chips Barry quote in the <br />newspaper, "I wish we could get back to <br />normal, whatever that is?" In answering <br />Chips question in terms of temperature, June <br />is a bit warmer and July and August are 2 <br />degrees warmer over the last ten years (1994- <br />2003), In looking at the number of days <br />above 90 degrees from 1994 to 2003, it <br />appears that we have picked up a lot of heat. <br />It has been very warm in the summer season, <br />There have been 63 days above 90 degrees <br />more than normal for the period of 2000- <br />2003, In the last few years we have had many more days than normal. That is why the last four years have been so <br />difficult for the Drought Task Force, When you look all the way back to the l870s at observed temperatures, we have <br />had more 90-degree days in the 2000-2003 period than any other time in the last 100 years, There have not been a lot <br />of storms in this recent hot period, <br /> <br />NIN03 Anomalous (1950-79 Base) Temperature Prediction Began 199805 (large Observed) by DynaPred <br /> <br />xperimentaJEJill.nollabJjnaDlIlIoD <br /> <br />0- <br />f 2 <br />j1 <br />:;; <br />~ 0 <br /> <br /> <br />Ju e <br /> <br />I--...-....AVERAGE(PREDICION-Ne~r.. PREDICTION-Whole) -O-OBSERVED I <br /> <br />Note: El Nino periods are associated with wetter than average weather in parts of Colorado <br /> <br />Experimental forecasts 1980 through 2010 show an index of temperature anomalies in the Pacific, For the last four or <br />five years we really haven't had one, It is warmer than normal but not a real El Nino, The Yampa/White watershed <br />are tinder box dry and of higher forest fire danger, Mr, Henz believes that the southwest will not be the high fire <br />danger area this year. The North Park and 1-70 corridor will be more likely to have high danger. He thinks it should <br />be an average monsoon season, but it may not be enough to top off the reservoirs, This monsoon season will not <br />penetrate into northern Rockies like we would like it. We will have an average July, leaving the hot dry spells behind <br />us, <br /> <br />To finish his presentation Mr. Henz made the observations about neighboring states and reservoirs like Lake <br />McCounahey and Lake Mead slowly drying up, He observed that we have had a few good wet months in recent <br />winters but we need a wet six-month winter to help recover. The big reservoirs are drying up slowly, When it comes <br />to Lake Mead, we are getting close to emergency levels, This entails dragging boats across sand to get at water. <br /> <br />2 <br />