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<br />... In my experimental forecasts for July through September 2004, favored regions remain to our south, both in <br />Arizona as well as especially over eastern New Mexico. These forecasts match soil moisture-based statistical forecasts <br />issued at the Climate Prediction Center. <br />.... Bottomline: Recent warming in the central equatorial Pacific may have averted the possibility of a switch to La <br />Nifia, just like it did last year around this time of year. Whether or not this will lead to a sizable El Nino event later this <br />year remains uncertain. Meanwhile, tilts in the precipitation odds remain subdued over much of the Colorado. If the <br />recent trend towards hotter summers holds up, drought conditions may worsen yet again, even if we receive average <br />rainfall. <br /> <br />Colorado Climate Center (CCC) - Nolan Doesken <br />The CCC drought data and presentation can be found on the web at htto://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu Mr. Doesken Made <br />the point that potential flooding should deserve some attention. His historical perspective was: 140 years ago we were <br />cleaning up flood damages, 128 years ago there was major flood damages in Denver, 110 year ago in Boulder there <br />were big flood, 100 years ago in <br />Fort Collins there were floods, 83 <br />years ago we were doing clean up <br />in Pueblo from floods, 69 years <br />ago there was flooding on the <br />Republican River, 49 years ago <br />there was flood damages from <br />Huerfano to Pueblo counties to <br />Las Animas counties. Larry Lang <br />pointed out that in today's dollars <br />there would $2 billion in flood <br />damages if we had another 1965 <br />flood. Nolan continued with 23 <br />years ago there was an incredible <br />flood on Frijole Creek with 16" <br />of rain in four hours. Nolan <br />finished with the fact that only <br />five years ago we were cleaning <br />up flood damages on Fountain <br />Creek in El Paso and Pueblo <br />Counties. <br /> <br />COLORADO <br /> <br />73 <br />- .681- - - -6iio'-l <br />I. <br />I <br /> <br />I 41 <br />. <br />93 58 <br />72. ~______.6? <br /> <br />91, 98 _ ~~ '2e84 <br />. f)4 . 47 . I <br />.81 I . I <br />~, 172 - -- 62 - -- - - i <br />.~7 ,</ 141 - -l-.~----'.65.72 I <br /> <br />-- "'-- · I 108113 I __I <br />15 '\ ~ ---,- · !D} _.l -80 ~-8~ 61 <br />'81'. -89 . 1 . . <br />, ___ .84 -~'9:r .-~1J3 92 '~', 132 I. I I I <br />-- -- '~9"?9~5 ~ 14. ~110 "'._-~ <br />I 93 9094 ~ 84 ,- _16\"9_ ~~5 111 / .83 <br /> <br />--;6";8 - 94'90 · 9485 · .154'02 /~ · / <br />!j-e I ~I, ~ / 94 109_/""'05 <br /> <br />( I ~ 12; -1~ 109 <br />I \ 85 · <br />~------ - ~ -------"-- <br /> <br />89 57 <br />9"4,-_ ~ 82 .-- <br />) .&4\. <br />B;93 74 106 .706451 <br />. . - <br />8'~? 68;6i75 '" <br />-16:C'-'"'._-e--v ....8' - <br />- -----a,- 1491 . '!..t .85---74 I 78 <br />--,6. I 66&4 80. I _ _I - I. <br />- . · . ll!83 -----.L I <br />85 .J _ _ --'-- 68 7r{:2 92 I <br />. I 8J r. \.. d~ - --43 I <br />- - - . ',_ 82 -. '---- 95 18 .~. 86 &4 <br />I 19. '1).69 61 "- - · <br />I . J . _6 109 .91 .-., I <br />,.:. 7068! 69- 88~9- - --I <br />___ .tt~5 .,9 el671. <br />I -------z:-..J - 'if.~"6l~ 52. ..11 <br />9' -.-" 81 80 -s. · I <br />92 91/96 .-88 · 11, ' <br />// v: ..8~J;.12---i_ <br />_----' i4~-~ "96 <br />r-___~ · r ) <br /> <br />r <br /> <br />76 67 .78 <br /> <br />· I.-____~---J <br /> <br />I <br />60 <br />. I <br />I <br /> <br />Precipitation <br />(percent) <br /> <br />.6 41 <br />. . i <br /> <br />. 0-9 <br />.'0-29 <br />.30-4.9 <br />.50-59 <br />.70-89 <br />90-109 <br />."0-129 <br />.130- 149 <br />.150- 169 <br />.,70-,89 <br />190-209 <br />.210-229 <br />.230-249 <br />.>2&1 <br /> <br />1- <br /> <br />52 <br />59 · 64 <br />I · __~-' <br />--- I <br /> <br />--------176 <br />I . <br /> <br />r--_ I <br /> <br />.95 I <br /> <br />I <br />.8ii 1 <br /> <br />50 <br />___e__J <br /> <br />Generally speaking, storms that <br />occur later in July and August tend to stop moving and stall a bit and hang around. This time of year they keep <br />moving. From the drought perspective: the stream flows are lower and the snow is pretty much gone, but the system is <br />not recharged. We are better than 2002 and two years later it's still not every good. In April we take a look back and <br />say "thank you the moisture was wonderful". <br /> <br />Water Year 2004 (October 2003 through May 2004) precipitation as a percent of the 1971-2000 average, <br /> <br />Impact Task Force Reports <br />Municipal Water Task Force Barry Cress - conditions are the same as last time restrictions went into place. We are <br />working with six projects around the state that are mostly plumbing and water quality. Things like circulation lines <br />and install water meters. The Pinewood District will get a loan from the CWCB to obtain better water rights. <br />Bob Stegner, Denver Water - reservoirs are about 81 % of full for Denver water and customers are using 27% less <br />water in May than in previous years. <br /> <br />Next Meeting <br />The next meeting was tentatively set for July 20th and that coincides with the next CWCB Board Meeting in Delta, <br />Colorado. The Water Availability Task Force Chair, Brad Lundahl, will pick a new date and location. All ofthe <br />interested parties will be notified via email. The Flood Task Force will only meet again in the event of significant <br />flooding in Colorado this summer. In the event of flooding the CWCB will coordinate state, federal flood programs to <br />assist in documentation, recovery, and floodplain mapping operations. <br /> <br />6 <br />