FLOOD11685 - Laserfiche WebLink

Home Browse Search

far making for a not so gradual melt out. The runoff graphs are plunging out quickly. Looking at the Colorado River gage near the state line, 2004 is better than 2002 but still is 20-30% of normal. The website has a new graph that is the composite of 110 real time graphs shows conditions of a statewide basis. NOAA - CDC Gary Bates (filling in for Klaus Wolter) If you average all of the model runs the forecasts are to be above normal precipitation. There is a lull coming up in late June. Most of the models show that this active period will continue into next week. The Driest part of summer is typically the end of June and early July. The maps showed sea surface temperature anomalies that are small. But there is a cold pool next to South America. We have seen some expansion of the warm pool that is leading to warmish neutral conditions. In 2002, this was the beginning that developed into a moderate El Nino. The recent one was like the loth in size. Some indicators point out that it is unlikely that we will get another El Nino building. - - \ ~ ~ ~. !-----.-~[--------.Lj I CPC's last forecast indicates increased chances for a warmer-than-normal summer across much of western U.S. / Klaus Wolter's most recent forecast stated that "recent warming in the central equatorial Pacific may have averted the possibility of a switch to La Nifia, just like it did last year around this time of year. Whether or not this will lead to a sizable El Nino event later this year remains uncertain. Meanwhile, tilts in the precipitation odds remain subdued over much of the Colorado. If the TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK\ 1.5 MO LL SEASONAL recent trend towards hotter summers holds up drought VALID' JAS 200"'1 , MADE: 20 MAY 200"'1 conditions may worsen yet again, even if we receive -do~' -1 0 average rainfall." There were many temperature departures from average. Most ofthe Western U.S. is in this boat. Temperature forecasts in July are based on trends and show warm summers, over large precipitation forecasts. The EC stands for equal chances of wet or dry. The weather forecast skill is lowest this time of year. Soil moisture forecasts, and the new precipitation forecast have it drier for Colorado and the Southwest U.S. The skill or confidence in soil moisture levels is better in the Midwest and farther east in the U.S. than in Colorado. Mr. Wolter's new forecast favors wetness in eastern New Mexico. Klaus Wolter Executive Summary - June 11, 2004 Percent of Normal Precipitation (%) 4/1/2004 6/12/2004 800 400 200 .150 125 100 75 fO 25 5 . The most recent El Nifio event - declared over a year ago - tried to make a comeback last fall, but has been 'clinically dead' for most of 2004. Near-neutral ENSO conditions remain the safest bet for the next few months, with some hope remaining for a resurgent El Nifio later this year. .. After a mixed spring (dry March, wet April, and dry May), June has left much of Colorado drier than normal for the month so far. A few notable exceptions received excessive precipitation amounts in the form of damaging hail storms. We are now drifting into the so-called "mini-dry season" from mid-June until early July that is often associated with the hottest temperatures of the year, and reduced rainfall odds ahead ofthe monsoon later this summer. 2 5