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. Last year we saw around 100 severe weather days in the spring/summer 2002 and for the spring/summer 2003 we could see 200-400 events or more this summer. We have already seen an early tornado just before the March 17-202003 snowstorm. . May to June outlook looks quite wet statewide with the South Platte and Colorado River basins 20- 30% above normal and others very near normal. Spring rains may bring Front Range flooding threat Colorado Springs to Fort Collins. . The summer monsoons look to be average but burn areas will face serious flash flooding and water quality issues by August. Division of Water Resources - Keith Vander Horst / Jack Byers The DWR puts out a summary and graphic report of conditions by river basin for every month at http://water.state.co.us/pubs/swsi.asp. Southwest stream flow is supposed to be better than last year but well below normal. Jack Byers the Deputy State Engineer also wanted to warn us that on the water commissioners also see lingering affects of the drought and water supplies and stream flow in areas of Colorado are still below normal. He also warns that it will be 30-45 days before we have good reservoir storage numbers. There are 16 Million AF water generated each year and this year we are at 1.4 Million AF part ways through the water year. Mid July we will likely see reservoirs at their highest levels. It will take years to fill Blue Mesa Reservoir. This is similar to the concept of the meteorological drought ending but the hydrologic drought still continuing. He believes that is will take a few more years of average or above average precipitation for the states reservoirs to recover. US Geological Survey The USGS didn't present at this meeting but wanted all to know about the Drought Watch Web Site http://webserver.cr.usgs.gov/droughtI.This site is still being developed but has 23 sites that will graphically show minimum, average and 1946-2001 average for stream flow. There are also graphs for percent of year to date stream flow volume and real time stream flow. Thanks to the USGS for this new series of graphical data that will be helpful in the forecasting and assessment of Colorado's climate and weather for the Flood And Water Availability Task Force meetings. Colorado Climate Center - Roger Pielke Roger Pielke' s PowerPoint presentation is posted on the CWCB web site at http://cwcb.state.co.us/flood watch/. Additional climate graphs and data are available at http://climate. atmos.colostate.edu/ Water Year Data - Using climate divisions defined by Dr. Klaus Wolter of NOAA's Climate Diagnostic Center in Boulder, the accumulated precipitation data are tracked for at least two weather observing sites in each division. Also plotted are the average accumulated precipitation, the wettest water year in the period of record, and the driest water year in the period of record. Averages are shown for the period 1971-2000 and for the entire period for which weather data is available for each site. ~"Y 2, !>tut,1.hly Co)crHdo Cor" Hq:io"~ (On.",sc!'UlCl. 7fl-99 ., \ . IQI"",;\~~ . D1 .J ,.---' l~ ....".'<.... !...!r_~-?,... ~....:~ Il'.~ r, .' .t,"!- ""'" ~:\:; ~~., ~ '::'~~~'_ ~ '" 'lJ (. i . J 'l.' . ~~... :'~:.. ! . . "^ _ to f~':t. '~.. . .. ..: \, ~.F~~' -..It.;...;., ~ t. . ;J'~ _"~~ '~tJ""fK.~''''- i"..~ i . \ '-0;' .:./' \ · ~t"'.;"" "., ~, :., ',' .[l;,..I} CJ ..-"C:.I...,JI I.i f<r ....~:J:'f..... ~It 1(:' - r. ~ I' H.. ~ ..... "'..> ;. 'l<1'~ ~~f(t~-:'....V ~\~:).'., :,.:~.. ~i .!'ttJ'~I;.~f>~.'.f?; ~ >..,. . dO C:J.:LiCo, D ,'''' ":. .,; "''\:' . ' , :;~' i :I"" ,.~_.~ -'~- ~~! -llJ!nJ -,~ -Jh?"" -~I;I:I"" -J~'" -I~' -In..'''l'f -~n:l'T Ci>DP ~:--;orF.L (.(lIOP !-:X071-:L . ... t~D I . .. r~D Co . ... ('-1[' 2 . .. (ND 7 . .. I~D :1 . .. LSD ~ ., ... LSD t . ... ISD !i o ^ SlHUel~H tloL H.iiwiJ:tlcll lu. At! itJoth.x F8'lCENi OF H:'R- iO-""TE srnu,!oIrL07( 'o'OJJf>I~ ICO 1Cl'~.1t2002 11)(:1%. USGS aJ 000 4Ei;t. .1:) :'5% ~) a Fl'oE\'IClJS LOW're/lR 1~;;1 ~Al:2 (POO~- ~lOtw..) !oIEAtl 145 \'E.tJi Sl (OOIM:J:I aWE (:lIVEn tEIoA D1LLOtl