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<br />considerably since early February (from just over 70% to 93% as of today). For the next two months, the <br />eastern half of Colorado should continue to receive above-normal moisture due to this influence. Competing <br />climate factors reduce the chances for a wet spring in the San Juans and New Mexico in particular. NOAA <br />CDC mission is advancing understanding and predictions of climate variability and more information can be <br />found at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/index.html <br /> <br /> <br />National Weather Service - Treste Huse <br /> <br />Treste's forecasts are also posted on the CWCB Web <br />site at http://cwcb.state.co.us/flood watch/. Treste <br />Huse gave the NWS 8-14 forecasts calling for colder <br />temperatures and possible precipitation. Short-term <br />forecasts are available on the NWS - Boulder website. <br />She also showed GOES satellite images of storm <br />systems and cloudy weather lined up in the Pacific <br />Ocean that appears to be headed northwest and through <br />Colorado. Graphics came from the NOAA - NWS - <br />Meteorological Development lab who's mission is: <br />Develop and Implement Scientific Techniques into <br />National Weather Service Operations, Furnish a Full <br />Spectrum of Forecast Guidance, Provide Interactive <br />Tools for Decision Assistance and Forecast <br />Preparation, Conduct Comprehensive Evaluations of <br />NWS Products. Visit this site at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/. <br /> <br />- - ""'" <br />1II!ll."._ ~ ~~ <br />~-=>''''rHtr: <br /> <br />HDR Engineering (Hydro-Met) - William Badini <br />The HDR forecasts are also posted on the CWCB website at http://cwcb.state.co.us/flood watch/. Bill <br />explained the difference between the meteorological drought when there is low precipitation and the <br />hydrologic drought, which is a hangover from empty reservoirs, low storage and low stream flows and dry <br />soils. John Henz also has a drought presentation and a long term forecast posted on the CWCB web site. A <br />summary of the Bill Badini presentation is as follows: <br /> <br />Current Pacific storm track shows another 7- <br />10 storms poised to cross Colorado by mid <br />June and is predicting an average monsoon <br />season. <br />Peak snowmelt runoff times may be delayed <br />by cool spring temperatures and coincide with <br />spring storm periods and crate a higher <br />flooding threat in the Colorado Springs to <br />north of Fort Collins areas through June 20th. <br />Post EI- Nino summers feature dramatic <br />increases in May and June thunderstorms, <br />which can create more severe weather and <br />flash flooding. <br />2002 bum areas could face severe threats <br />(Hayman, Missionary Ridge and Coal Seam fire bums). They could face mud, debris flows, flooding <br />and water quality issues. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Multivariate ENSO Index for the strongest <br />EI Nino events since 1950 vs. current conditions <br /> <br />~ <br />II. <br />~ 1 <br />"" <br />III <br />N <br />:; <br />= <br />"" <br />~ -1 <br />~ <br /> <br /> <br />-2 <br /> <br />--.-- ~7+ <br />---+- 65+ <br />---+- 72+ <br />---+- 82+ <br />---+- 86+ <br />---+- 91 + <br />--B- 97+ <br />n1ju 02+ <br /> <br />-1 <br /> <br />-2 <br /> <br />c <br />.i'J <br />v <br />'" <br />o <br /> <br />~ <br />-<< <br />'" <br />" <br />:;;: <br /> <br />c <br />.i'J <br />v <br />'" <br />o <br /> <br />~ <br />-<< <br />'" <br />" <br />:;;: <br /> <br />~ <br />~ <br />-, <br /> <br />~ <br />~ <br />-, <br /> <br />is <br />Q. <br />'" <br />'"' <br /> <br />is <br />Q. <br />'" <br />'"' <br /> <br />3 <br />